Despite recently increasing the risk of a direct military confrontation with Russia, President Joe Biden appears poised to end his term not with a bang but with a whimper. According to an Emerson College poll released Tuesday, Biden’s approval rating has hit a four-year low of 36%. Gallup polls have captured a similar decline, now putting him at 37%. A total of 52% of respondents told Emerson they disapproved of Biden’s performance.
Meanwhile, the once and future Republican president has enjoyed a significant favorability bump following his landslide election win on Nov. 5.
Emerson indicated that President-elect Donald Trump’s favorability rating has climbed six percentage points since the start of this month and now sits at 54%. Where mainstream polls go, that’s a big deal, especially given Gallup’s claim that Trump never cracked 50% during his first term.
When it comes to men, 61% surveyed by Emerson said they viewed Trump favorably, compared to 48% of women. Broken down by race, 59% of whites, 53% of Hispanics, and 28% of blacks said they viewed Trump favorably.
“Trump’s favorability varies significantly by gender, race, and age,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Trump’s strongest age cohort is among voters 40-59, with 60% viewing him favorably, compared to 48% among those over 70. Notably, his favorability has risen among younger voters, with 55% of those under 30 expressing a favorable opinion.”
As Kimball indicated, Trump appears to have made significant inroads with young voters.
According to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from Nov. 17-19, 57% of respondents ages 18 to 29 said they had a favorable view of Trump. Newsweek highlighted that this marks a net favorability increase of 19 points for Trump among members of that age cohort since YouGov polled them just one week earlier.
‘He is the state of play.’
Among voters 30-44, 45-64, and 65+, Trump’s favorability rating was somewhat lower — 49%, 51%, and 48%, respectively.
Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk responded to the poll, tweeting, “President Trump is surging with young voters. According to YouGov, Trump has a +19 point favorability rating with voters ages 18-29. TikTok and X are big reasons why. Our campus videos were seen 3 BILLION times this semester. Truth is ascendant.”
Kirk noted prior to the election that “the energy is off the charts. You have a younger generation, Gen Z, who experienced a lot of — they would say — lies and deceit during COVID, and a lot of their life being altered. There is this pent up ‘rebellion energy’ that has never come out,” reported Vanity Fair.
“Gen Z could impact this entire election,” added Kirk.
While it was clear that young men were gravitating toward the Republican candidate and toward conservatism more broadly, young women surprised some observers on Election Day with an 11-point shift toward Trump.
NBC exit polling revealed that Biden’s 35-point lead over Trump among young women four years ago shrunk to a 24-point lead for Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, recently emphasized that for younger Americans, Trump is not a disruptive force — “He is the state of play.”
“They see him through Barstool Sports, through UFC, through golf. They see him through culture; they see him through music, et cetera,” Volpe told “CNN Political Briefing.” “It’s [also] about the message that permeates throughout MAGA, which is, ‘He’s strong, the opposition is weak, and he exudes this confidence that a lot of younger people clearly are seeking.’ Three-quarters of young men, and women aren’t so far behind, are stressed out on a regular basis about their future, OK? And they don’t have anything that they tell me to give them hope. They think of the world as scary and unclear, and the vision of their future is blurry. So when someone says, ‘I will take care of this,’ ‘I will make sure that you’re taken care of for the economy,’ et cetera, there’s clearly some resonance of that.”
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