Oakland Mayor’s Race Too Close to Call, Will Take Days to Determine a Winner

A special election was held Tuesday to replace recalled Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao. The winner may not be known for days or weeks thanks to slow counting and ranked choice voting, but as of today the more moderate candidate Loren Taylor has a small lead over the woke progressive in the race, Barbara Lee.

As of late Tuesday, former City Council member Loren Taylor held a narrow lead and neither candidate had secured a majority in a 10-candidate field. The tight margin all but guarantees the vote tally will stretch into the coming days as mail ballots are counted and could come down to voters’ backup selections under the city’s ranked choice system.

“We all know this is going to be a long week,” Lee told a crowd at an event space in downtown Oakland bedecked with yellow and green decorations — Athletics colors — that included cheerleading gear in a nod to her biography.

Lee had hoped to win outright in the special election, which would have required her to secure a majority of first-place votes. If she does not, the vote tally will move to the next round, which means the last-place candidate is eliminated and their lower-ranked selections are redistributed.

Winning the race requires one candidate to win a simple majority of the votes. However, because there were a bunch of low interest candidates in the race, it looks like neither of the leadings candidates will reach that. As of the final update last night, Taylor had 23,362 votes to Lee’s 22,142. That means the race is 48.22 % for Taylor and 45.70 % to Lee. Since no one has a simple majority, this will drag on. The vote totals will change as mail-in ballots are still being counted.

According to The East Bay Times, Alameda County officials don’t expect to release any more results until Friday, meaning there will be a significant wait before the final tally is announced.

So it’s too early to say what will happen next, but as of now it appears the wokest city in one of the country’s bluest states might reject the woke candidate (Lee) for the one promising to fix a broken city. If it happens, it will fit into a growing trend in the state.

The past few years have seen a pushback against progressive leadership in the San Francisco Bay Area, with a succession of candidates falling to more moderate figures who have emphasized balanced budgets and fighting crime.

In 2022 tech entrepreneur Matt Mahan beat progressive activist Cindy Chavez, known for her work on homelessness and mental health, to become mayor of San Jose and he secured reelection in 2024.

The picture was similar in San Francisco with progressive Mayor London Breed losing to Levi Strauss fortune heir Daniel Lurie in 2024, while Thao was recalled in Oakland amid a crime surge that pushed out some local businesses.

Last night, Taylor told his supporters to be patient. He was optimistic but didn’t declare victory.

At Taylor’s election party in downtown Oakland Tuesday night, about 100 supporters cheered and applauded after Trishala Vinnakota, a spokesperson from Taylor’s campaign, announced his initial lead over Lee. Throughout the night, people frequented an open bar and trays of food at Stak Space, on the 18th floor of 1950 Franklin St. 

Taylor, who arrived with his family at about 8:45 p.m., said, “Oakland, I love you.” He urged supporters to be patient as every vote is counted, even if it takes days. He referred to the race against Lee as a “true David and Goliath story.”

California’s inability to count votes quickly after an election is an ongoing embarrassment. Even Gov. Newsom has admitted it.

“India, 1 day to count 640m votes. Germany, 8 hours to count 50m. California, 4 weeks!”

Gov. Newsom: “It IS ridiculous!!!”

Full rebrand tour underway pic.twitter.com/KB5n7R3XSe

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) March 13, 2025

We should have a better idea where this is headed after Friday’s update. By then most of the outstanding mail-in ballots should be counted.