Today’s Deep Question: Did Israel Just Get the Last Hamas Leader from October 7?

Truth be told, that’s not the deepest question the day. “Did Israel just give itself a justification for ending the war” is the deepest question.

IDF forces struck a suspected Hamas command center near a Khan Younis hospital this morning. The Israelis believe that Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of October 7 architect Yahya Sinwar and the last member of Hamas leadership behind the massacres, operated out of that command center. The IDF now believes that they may — may — have killed the other Sinwar and made a clean sweep of “Al-Aqsa Flood” senior commanders in Gaza.

Only his hairdresser knows for sure, at least for the moment:

Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Muhammad Sinwar, was targeted in a major Israeli airstrike at a hospital in the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday afternoon, security sources said.

The Israel Defense Forces, in a statement, said it had targeted Hamas operatives at an underground command center belonging to the terror group, below the European Hospital in Khan Younis.

Footage posted online showed several large plumes of smoke rising from the ground around the hospital, as Israeli Air Force fighter jets dropped at least nine bombs. Other clips showed that the ground had collapsed in the area of the strike.

This appears to be video of the strike, which was no small operation. Nine bombs in tight proximity had some sort of specific purpose:

📹 مشاهد أخرى للحزام الناري الذي استهدف المستشفى الأوروبي في #خان_يونس جنوب قطاع #غزة. pic.twitter.com/M5C7hvKddI

— عربي بوست (@arabic_post) May 13, 2025

Thus far, the Israelis say they have no data yet on the success of the targeting of Sinwar. Hamas isn’t saying much either, except to accuse the Israelis of a war crime for hitting a hospital compound. Of much greater import, though, is the fact that the IDF revealed the reason for the strike. Normally, one would caution against such disclosures unless and until the success of the mission can be confirmed. A failure has some consequences in terms of enemy morale, and certainly would be a potential embarrassment for the short term. 

Why talk about it at all? Because it might provide Benjamin Netanyahu with enough of a victory over Hamas to declare victory and end the military operations in Gaza. That would provide an off-ramp to cut a deal that would free the rest of the hostages — not to mention getting Sinwar out of the way of a deal:

If Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar has indeed been assassinated, it would make it easier to reach a hostage and ceasefire deal, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post. 

“[Mohammed] Sinwar was the most extreme figure in terms of negotiation positions for reaching a deal,” the official said. “If he is out of the picture, it should ease the efforts to reach an agreement.”

The assassination attempt occurred as the Israeli delegation, led by “M” from the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the Coordinator for Hostages and Missing Persons, Gal Hirsch, arrived in Qatar on Tuesday evening.

The Israelis didn’t go to Qatar alone. The US sent its team as well to help facilitate talks after the successful negotiation that freed Edan Alexander. Steven Witkoff expressed optimism that a deal could finally be reached, even before the reported strike on Sinwar’s command post:

US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US hostage envoy Adam Boehler on Tuesday told families of hostages still in Gaza that they think there is a chance to make progress on freeing their loved ones as they head to Qatar for indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, the Hostage and Missing Families Forum said.

The Forum said that during a two-hour meeting, Witkoff “expressed that everyone would prefer to see a diplomatic solution, noting that most captivity survivors have been released through diplomatic means.”

“He assured the families that if he and Boehler didn’t believe there was a genuine chance for progress in negotiations, they wouldn’t be making the trip to Doha,” the Forum added.

Trump clearly wants a deal made. If the IDF has eliminated Sinwar, along with all of the other Gaza-based Hamas leadership in place on October 7, it might be enough for Netanyahu to use as a “mission accomplished” moment — at least in terms of an end to combat operations. Netanyahu won’t move out of Gaza as long as Hamas remains armed, however, but at least a cessation would allow for aid and medical support to begin flowing to the Gazans, easing some of the international pressure on Israel.

Speaking of international pressure, the Trump foreign-policy team has an interesting new addition:

Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid has responded to reports that former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is advising the Trump administration’s envoy on the Gaza conflict, calling the move part of a broader effort to consult experienced voices on complex regional dynamics.

“I haven’t spoken with him about it yet,” Lapid told The Media Line, “but I know they’re in contact.”

Lapid, who worked alongside Blair during his time as both foreign minister and prime minister, said the outreach made sense given Blair’s long-standing diplomatic involvement in the Middle East. “The US is trying to broaden its advisory circle to include people with deep regional experience, including on Iran and Saudi Arabia,” he said. 

I didn’t have “Tony Blair assists Donald Trump in the Middle East” on my bingo card. In fact, I’d doubt that such a bingo card would have even been printed. Hmmmmm.