The senators to watch in reconciliation’s next battle

Washington breathed a sigh of relief Thursday morning. After weeks of wrangling, members and staff of the House of Representatives finally got some much-needed sleep. But while the House’s passage of the reconciliation package marks a major win, no one should mistake it for the final battle.

The bill now moves to the Senate, where it will be dissected, amended, and — barring a miracle — sent back to the House with underlines and edits.

The White House wants this wrapped up before the July 4 recess. That’s ambitious, considering how narrowly the bill cleared the House in the first place.

All spending must originate in the House, a fact that the Senate sometimes forgets. So think of Thursday’s vote as taking the beaches. Now comes the slow, messy slog inland.

Everyone involved in this next phase knows how exhausting the past few weeks have been — and how fragile the agreement they’ve inherited really is. But senators have a habit of ignoring that reality. Unlike their House counterparts, individual senators wield more power. They don’t always play well with others.

That might restrain their worst impulses. But not by much.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is heap big mad over any attempt to touch Medicaid — even if it only means requiring able-bodied recipients to work. Some last-minute adjustments and private talks with the president have reportedly calmed him.

Still, Hawley is known for digging in. He claims the president has his back. Some negotiators expect him to fall in line. Others expect fireworks. On Thursday, he told reporters the House bill “will definitely change” once the Senate finishes with it.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has his sights on the REINS Act, which would force major federal regulations — those with an estimated economic impact of $100 million or more — to get Senate approval. Procedural hurdles kept it out of the House version of the bill, but a placeholder was added. Lee won’t get everything he wants, but he’s not letting it go. Expect him to push hard to rein in the bureaucracy.

Also expect him to enjoy every minute of the fight. Lee actually
likes this process. He’ll be tinkering away until the end.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) wants to roll federal spending back to pre-COVID levels. Outside Washington, that sounds like common sense. Inside the Beltway, it sounds preposterous. Johnson seems ready to take on the fight — putting him on a collision course with the likes of Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine).

The White House hopes he’ll settle for a few symbolic wins. That remains to be seen.

Then there’s Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who reliably votes no unless everything revolves around him. He’s hard to negotiate with because no one expects him to say yes. But consistency has its brand value, and Paul knows it.

On tax policy, major changes seem unlikely. House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) worked closely with Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) to smooth out differences. Whether the other committees were as engaged is less clear.

So, no — the fight isn’t over. The Senate will spend the next three weeks grinding through its version of the bill. Once it is passed, the two chambers will head to conference to reconcile differences and produce a final draft both sides can support.

The White House wants this wrapped up before the July 4 recess. That’s ambitious, considering how narrowly the bill cleared the House in the first place.

Back in April, when the Senate took the lead on the budget, Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) made a deal: no major cuts now in exchange for letting the House lead on reconciliation. House members expect that promise to mean something. They shouldn’t.

As one former congressman and current White House adviser told the Beltway Brief, the Senate essentially never takes a House bill and improves it — but senators
always make their changes.

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