Just about every influencer, economist, and politician predicted President Trump’s tariffs would unleash an inflation tsunami. Prices would spike and consumers would drown in a rising tide of costs.
Yet here we are, deep into summer, enjoying beach days and backyard barbecues. The price of lawn chairs and beach balls remains well within reach. So where’s the inflation?
Is it worth surrendering political and economic independence just to shave a few cents off the price of some Chinese-made junk?
According to the latest government data, inflation hasn’t surged. In fact, it’s lower than it was this time last year. The experts missed again. Why?
The short answer: Tariffs don’t necessarily drive inflation.
The Walmart effect writ large
Think about how Walmart keeps its prices low. It’s the biggest store in town, so it sets the terms. Producers either cut their costs or lose shelf space. Everyone wants access to Walmart customers, so they play along — and prices fall.
Now scale that logic up. America is the biggest consumer market in the world. In 2024, Americans spent more than $19 trillion on consumer goods, including over $4 trillion on imports.
This gives us leverage. When America slaps tariffs on foreign goods, those producers face a choice: Eat the cost or risk losing access to our market. And they know they’ll get outcompeted if they try to pass the full cost on to American buyers.
That’s exactly what’s happening. Recent surveys show about two-thirds of manufacturers expect their foreign suppliers to eat the tariff costs instead of raising prices on U.S. consumers.
Dodge the tax: Buy American
Here’s the other thing the panic-peddlers don’t say: Tariffs are avoidable. They’re a tax on imports. Buy American, and you don’t pay.
And while $4 trillion in imports sounds massive, it only accounts for about 13% of the U.S. economy. That’s not nothing, of course, but it hardly amounts to the kind of widespread pressure needed to trigger across-the-board inflation.
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Photo by Andrej Ivanov / Contributor via Getty Images
Instead, tariffs apply pressure in the right places. They force foreign competitors to compete with American producers or lose market share. That creates new opportunities for domestic manufacturers — and when they scale up, costs per unit drop. It’s basic economics — and it just happens to be a win for sovereignty.
Want lower prices? Close the trade gap
The media talk about consumer prices like they’re the only prices that matter. But they ignore the other kind of inflation — the kind tariffs can help tame.
Every year, we import more than we export. That trade deficit doesn’t just disappear. We pay for it by selling off our assets and racking up debt. Foreigners now hold trillions in American real estate, farmland, and commercial property.
In 2024 alone, foreigners bought $42 billion in residential real estate, $8 billion in farmland, and $12 billion in commercial properties. That drives up housing costs and shuts American families out of the market.
Then there’s the debt. Foreign entities hold more than $8.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities. We owe them interest. Every year, we ship more than $150 billion abroad just to service that debt. We’re borrowing money from our rivals to buy their products. That’s suicidally stupid.
Cheap isn’t the goal
Even if tariffs raised prices slightly — which the data says they haven’t — so what? Cheap isn’t the mission. National survival is.
That’s the argument I make in my book, “Reshore: How Tariffs Will Bring Our Jobs Home and Revive the American Dream.” America isn’t just an economy. It’s a nation — a people, a language, a culture, a way of life.
We can’t offshore everything and expect to remain free. Tariffs are essential to keep our economy self-sufficient. They secure our borders, protect our workers, and defend our future.
Ask yourself: Is it worth surrendering political and economic independence just to shave a few cents off the price of some Chinese-made junk?
I didn’t think so.
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