Bad News Behn: TN-07 Race a Toss-Up?

Once again, Hot Air readers called it. We’ve covered the Aftyn Behn story for the past week, with her ridiculous “I hate Nashville” background to her inane League of Extraordinary Birthing Gentlemen, and more. Despite the Republican advantage in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District and Donald Trump’s massive win last year, our commenters sounded pessimistic about Matt Van Epps’ chances in Tuesday’s election.

According to a new poll from Emerson, the prophecies of doom are well-founded. Van Epps has a narrow nominal lead, but the result is a virtual tie:

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the special election for US Congress in Tennessee’s 7th district finds 48% of voters support Republican Matt Van Epps and 46% support Democrat Aftyn Behn. Two percent plan to vote for one of three third-party candidates on the ballot, and 5% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Van Epps’ overall support increases to 49%, and Behn to 47%. 

“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”

“There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%,” Kimball added.

That’s a gender divide, but it’s hardly stark. In fact, that actually sounds like bad news for Behn. Democrats usually win the gender-divide battle in the net, so a +3 for Van Epps is actually an optimistic sign. Still, one would expect a Republican to do better among both sexes against a candidate who cheered the torching of police stations, and who still won’t explicitly repudiate that position. 

Why hasn’t Behn’s negatives played a larger role in a conservative district? At least in Emerson’s polling, the problem may be Donald Trump, especially among independents:

President Trump holds a 47% job approval rating among Tennessee 7th District voters, and a 49% disapproval rating.

“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve,” Kimball said.

Even if Van Epps wins this race, that alone should set the alarm sirens off at the White House. If those trends can turn a R+10 district into a toss-up in a special election, it could portend serious problems for Republicans in purple districts in next year’s midterms. Even though Van Epps has a narrow lead over Behn on the economy in this poll (48/44), the lack of a coherent message and progress on economic issues could erode GOP standing, especially if Trump doesn’t engage on the campaign trail in the coming months. 

This is, of course, just one poll. Even though Emerson is generally reliable, any good pollster can throw a shoe, especially in a special election with a narrow time frame for surveys. The problem is that there hasn’t been much polling for this TN-07 special election up until now. WPLN published more of an analysis than a poll last week that offered better news for Van Epps, but the analysis looked more at trends than current data:

Geer said Van Epps hasn’t inspired much excitement from within his own party, a sentiment echoed by Tennessee Rep. Jody Barrett, R-Dickson, who came in second in the Republican primary.

“I think [Behn is] going to have an easier time … getting the mainstream of her party to come behind her. The opposite is true for the Republicans. You know that Matt Van Epps was more of the establishment-backed candidate,” Barrett said. “The other thing is do not overlook the independents that are in this race.”

Polling by the group Impact Research found that if the general election is in line with the primary’s turnout, Van Epps will lead Behn by 8 points. Researchers also found that gap could be within three points if independent candidate Jon Thorp is able to draw Republican voters away from Van Epps.

Interestingly, Behn’s team did a poll in October, which showed Van Epps leading 52/44, but with a smallish sample and a large margin of error (± 5.65%). They showed motivation among voters in the district as tied at 49% for both candidates, and drew the obvious conclusion about strategy:

● Convert the Democratic edge on enthusiasm into votes, and drive turnout, especially in Davidson County, among Black voters, and among voters under 50. Our poll universe has a 16 point advantage on party identification for Republicans (51% Republican or Lean Republican, 35% Democratic or Lean Democratic), but it’s certainly possible to close that gap substantially in an oddly-timed special election context.

● Persuade the 17% of the district who agree that the government works better with checks and balances, but who aren’t currently voting for Aftyn, to give her a chance to go to Washington and deliver on lowering health care costs, releasing the Epstein files, and lowering the cost of living. These messages resonate with Democrats, Independents, and even many Republicans.

● Increase the existing doubts about Matt Van Epps many conservative voters hold, making sure that they know they have alternatives.

Republicans had better get their act together in TN-07. They need to get voters to the polls on Election Day, and ensure that they have an answer for Behn’s strategy and messaging. This is too close for comfort. 

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