Kevin Hassett said recent changes in economic forecasts reflect structural shifts in the U.S. economy driven by President Donald Trump’s policies, including reductions in government spending, workforce changes, and increased domestic production.
Hassett made the remarks while discussing updated labor and growth expectations, arguing that traditional benchmarks for job creation no longer accurately reflect economic health under the current policy environment.
According to Hassett, one of the primary factors affecting labor market numbers is the Trump administration’s effort to reduce the size of the federal government.
He said large-scale layoffs of government employees have had a measurable impact on employment figures.
“Well, it’s changing for two reasons. It’s changing because we’ve got government employees that have been laid off because President Trump is reducing government spending. That’s about 250,000 workers this year. That’s a lot,” Hassett said.
Hassett also pointed to immigration enforcement as another factor influencing labor statistics. He said the removal of individuals who were in the country illegally and working has contributed to a recalibration of what constitutes a strong monthly jobs report.
“And we also have people who are being deported and re domiciled because they were here illegally and working,” Hassett said.
“And I think if you add those two things, then a good healthy labor report is probably closer to 70,000 than 140 150,000 which is what it was back in the day.”
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He explained that previous job growth figures were shaped by a larger federal workforce and an expanded labor pool that included illegal workers. With both of those factors changing, Hassett said expectations must adjust accordingly.
He argued that lower monthly job gains do not indicate economic weakness but instead reflect a labor market operating under different conditions.
Hassett emphasized that broader economic output tells a more complete story about the health of the economy.
He cited strong gross domestic product growth as evidence that the administration’s policies are producing results.
“And so bottom line right now, I’m looking at the output numbers, and we got GDP now north of 5% in the fourth quarter, after two 4% the previous quarter,” Hassett said.
He credited that growth to Trump’s economic agenda, particularly policies aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.
Hassett said the administration’s approach has encouraged companies to bring production back to the United States, leading to new factory construction and long-term job growth.
“So I think you got to say that Trump policies are really working. They’re really working, and they’re working because they’re onshoring production,” Hassett said.
Hassett said those investments are laying the groundwork for future employment gains, even if the immediate labor numbers appear lower than in previous years.
He predicted that the effects of increased factory construction and expanded domestic production would become more apparent over time.
“They’re causing factories to build, and in the fullest of time, I expect that to cause a job blowout in the second half of next year, especially,” Hassett said.
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