EXCLUSIVE: Heated Race To Replace Mitch McConnell Still Has Clear Frontrunner, New Poll Shows

The race to succeed Republican Senator Mitch McConnell in Kentucky remains competitive, but one candidate is emerging as the clear frontrunner, according to a new poll obtained exclusively by the Daily Caller.

Former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron is leading the Republican Senate primary against Republican Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr and businessman Nate Morris, capturing 40% of surveyed voters and holding an advantage among both men and women across all age groups, according to a poll commissioned on behalf of Kentucky First Action, a Cameron-aligned Super PAC.

Kentucky First Action Survey Findings Memo 1-26 by ashley

The poll was conducted January 5–8 via text-to-web interviews among 600 likely Republican voters in Kentucky and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. (RELATED: Black Kentucky Republican Fires Back After Being Told To Stop Eating ‘Coon Flakes’)

Aaron Whitehead, an advisor for Kentucky First Action, underscored Cameron’s strength in the race, saying, “After the other candidates have spent nearly $10 million in this race, what do they have to show for it? Getting dominated by Daniel Cameron, who is very well-positioned to be Kentucky’s next senator.”

Barr campaign communications director Alex Bellizzi, however, argued that the poll is proof that Barr is gaining momentum in the race.

“Since this campaign started, Daniel Cameron has sunk 10 points in the polls without any money being spent against him, is begging for campaign donations because he’s almost out of cash, and is losing Independents in a recent general election poll against the Democrat AOC of Kentucky,” Bellizzi wrote. “Andy Barr is growing in the polls, surging with grassroots support, and has 10 times the cash-on-hand as Cameron. Daniel Cameron already lost one statewide race in Kentucky even with President Trump’s endorsement, we can’t risk him losing the Senate for President Trump.”

Cameron previously led an unsuccessful bid to oust incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear during the commonwealth’s 2023 gubernatorial election.

The new polling also shows Cameron with a 64% favorability rating and 18% unfavorable rating, compared to Barr’s 46% favorability and 21% unfavorable rating and Morris’s 27% favorability rating and 18% unfavorable rating.

An internal poll conducted by the Cameron campaign in October showed him leading with 39% of likely Kentucky GOP voters, followed by Barr at 22% and Morris at 8%, according to a Washington Examiner report. Another October poll, commissioned by the Barr campaign, similarly found Cameron in the lead at 42%, with Barr at 25% and Morris at 10%.

Morris’ campaign highlighted that he has shown the most movement on the ballot, gaining 5 points since the October poll by Cameron’s campaign. His favorability also rose 15 points — a gain significantly larger than that of either opponent.

Today I officially filed to run for United States Senate!

I hope you join us as we fight to take out the trash, and bring new leadership for the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

Join the team today: https://t.co/VxA6eT6Rqn pic.twitter.com/R8k9EF1gwR

— Nate Morris (@NateMorris) December 15, 2025

Morris campaign spokesman Conor McGuinness told the Caller that Morris is the only America First outsider aligned with Trump as support for Barr and Cameron has stagnated.

“Nate Morris has all the momentum in this race because he is the only political outsider in this race, the only America First conservative in this race, and the only candidate President Trump can trust to have his back 100% of the time in the U.S. Senate,” McGuinness said. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: University Of Kentucky Offers To Violate State Law To Trans Kids — Changes Tune When Reporter Notices)

“It’s no wonder Andy Barr is treading water, he joined with the left-wing media to blame President Trump for the violence on January 6th and is an avowed supporter of amnesty for illegals. Despite his desperate attempts to spin his liberal record, Republicans in Kentucky aren’t buying his lies,” he added.

McGuinness predicted that Kentucky Republicans will ultimately reject both Barr and Cameron as establishment-backed career politicians, stating, “When all is said and done in May, we remain highly confident that Kentucky Republicans will reject Andy Barr and Daniel Cameron, two career politicians who are fully-owned subsidiaries of Mitch McConnell.”

Barr currently leads in fundraising across all candidates but Morris, a largely self-funded candidate, picked up his pace in the second half of 2025, according to a New York Post report.

During the fourth quarter of 2025, Morris raised at least $2 million, the majority of which came from his own funds, while Barr brought in nearly $1.4 million in contributions over the same period. Barr still leads in cash on hand, holding over $6.42 million compared with Morris’s $1.5 million war chest.

As of Sept. 30, Barr had $6.6 million in cash on hand, Morris had just over $1 million, and Cameron held $629,748. (RELATED: Prospective Republican Senate Candidate Nate Morris Hired Obama Advisor, Donated To Nikki Haley)

While the Morris Industries CEO raised more in total campaign receipts than Barr during the third quarter, that advantage didn’t extend to direct contributions. Morris’ fundraising for both the third and fourth quarters was significantly bolstered by personal loans he made to his campaign, totaling roughly $3 million in Q3 and $1.4 million in Q4, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings.

The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.