2030 Census Predictions Look Good for GOP

At this point we’ve all heard about the battle for midterm redistricting taking place in Texas, California and several other states. The outcome of that battle won’t be known until November but already some experts are looking ahead at the next census and what is likely to happen to the number of House seats based on current populations estimates. The news is not looking good for Democrats.

Democrats could face a gloomy Electoral College atmosphere next decade, according to new population estimates released Tuesday that show red-leaning states like Texas and Florida making major gains and California as a big loser.

By combining the census bureau’s new state population estimates for 2025 with previous years’ data, experts quickly projected the number of House seats — and Electoral College votes — states will gain or lose after the 2030 Census in the process known as reapportionment. And while those projections differ slightly, they all had bad news for Democrats: GOP-leaning states will gain electoral power and Democratic-leaning states will lose it if the trends continue.

There are actually two different estimates of what the census is likely to do to various states. One comes from an academic at Carnegie Mellon, Dr. Jonathan Cervas, who has been involved in some of the maps being used for redistricting. It shows California losing four seats and Illinois and New York losing two seats each. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida gain four seats each. Other blue (or at least purple) states losing seats include Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

#NEW: 2030 Apportionment Forecast based on 2025 Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 27, 2026).

Forecast prepared by Dr. Jonathan Cervas (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University pic.twitter.com/DACPg0Nldf

— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) January 27, 2026

The second map comes from a GOP-aligned group called The American Redistricting Project. It’s actually slightly better for Dems but still shows blue states losing 11 seats in the 2030 census.

🚨2030 Apportionment Forecast🚨
+4: TX
+2: FL
+1: AZ, GA, ID, NC, UT

-4: CA
-1: IL, MN, NY, OR, PA, RI, WI

* Based on the 2025 Census Population Estimates released January 27, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ugZPVCs6zw

— The American Redistricting Project (@AmerRedistrict) January 27, 2026

Neither of these scenarios requires anything new to happen, only for the same process of people moving to red, sunbelt states that is already happening. In other words, unless that dynamic changes in the next four years, something like this is going to be the result.

The result of all of this is that winning the rust belt won’t be enough for Democrats in 2032. 

“The Rust Belt states and Sun Belt states will continue to be the battleground,” he said. “The difference is that Republicans will be able to win the White House without a single Rust Belt state, whereas Democrats would have to sweep the Rust Belt and win in the Sun Belt.”

What Democrats hope will happen is that the California Democrats leaving the state will take their politics with them to Florida and Texas and, as a result, they’ll have a chance to pick up some seats in those states. But Republican strategists say they’d rather have the hand the GOP is being dealt than the other way around.

“I think the Democrats are in a bit of an existential crisis when it comes to winning the White House,” longtime Republican strategist David Kochel told Fox News Digital…

“I would not want to be where the Democrats are,” he emphasized. “The numbers don’t lie and the Democrats’ [electoral college] hill is getting steeper and steeper to climb.”…

“Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania won’t be enough. You going to have to put together a much broader coalition,” Kochel said as he pointed to the Democrats. “They are going to have to readjust how they build their coalition so that they include more working-class voters, non-college voters. These are the voters that they lost, and they’re going to have to get them back.”

And Kochel argued, “if you can’t put Florida in play, this thing is going to get away [from Democrats] and be much harder for them to be competitive nationally.”

None of this will matter in 2028 of course, but after that, presidential elections might be a bit more of an uphill battle for Democrats. It really is a problem for them that people keep leaving the states they run.

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