Heartland Freight Surges While Port Cities Slump [WATCH]

Freight industry analyst Craig Fuller says the U.S. trucking market has entered a markedly different phase than seen in recent years, with tightening capacity, rising demand, and unexpected strength centered in the industrial Midwest rather than coastal import hubs.

In comments outlining current freight conditions, Fuller said the trucking market has become increasingly tight, creating what he described as a “monumental market” for carriers.

He attributed the shift in part to regulatory compliance crackdowns that have reduced available capacity.

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“While things are significant right now on freight, it has been a monumental market for trucking companies,” Fuller said.

“We’re seeing significant tightness. We get a lot of channel checks. A lot of folks message me that are talking about how shippers are responding to this and really struggling to find capacity right now, this is, I think, a significant turn of events.”

Fuller said the reduction in capacity is accelerating as non-compliant carriers exit the market, a development he views as positive regardless of future volume trends.

“We know that capacity has been tightening due to the compliance crackdown. The barrier to entry are quickly going away,” he said.

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“And I think that’s a very, very positive development, regardless of what happens in volume.”

At the same time, freight volumes are rising sharply on a year-over-year basis.

According to Fuller, current truckload volumes are up 8 percent compared to last year, a notable increase that is not being driven by imports, which historically have been the primary engine of freight growth.

“One of the things in volume that think is really important is we are seeing significant increases in freight demand on a year over year basis,” Fuller said.

“Currently, truckload volumes on a year over year basis are up 8% that is actually quite significant. What is even more interesting is it’s not what you would expect it to be. Imports are actually not really participating in this volume surge.”

Instead, Fuller said the growth is concentrated in the Rust Belt and the traditional industrial Midwest, particularly in sectors tied to automotive manufacturing and heavy machinery.

“It’s happening in the Rust Belt, the traditional industrial Midwest, which is really focused on auto and heavy machinery, is where we’re seeing it,” he said.

By contrast, major import distribution hubs are seeing declines.

Fuller pointed specifically to Ontario, California, a key logistics center for imported goods, where volumes have dropped sharply.

“We’re not seeing it the ports,” he said.

“In fact, we’re not even seeing it in places like Ontario, California… we’re seeing volumes in Ontario, California down 17%.”

Fuller said the decline is likely due to importers drawing down existing inventory rather than bringing in new shipments, possibly while awaiting a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump.

“I think that’s related to the fact that importers didn’t bring in an enormous amount of inventory in the last couple of months, and had been just focused on draining what they have, perhaps waiting for the Supreme Court decision that is expected to rule on Donald Trump’s legality of tariffs,” he said.

Despite the import slowdown, Fuller said the resurgence of industrial activity is a key reason the current freight environment feels different from previous cycles, which were largely driven by imports, including during the COVID-era surge.

“We’re starting to see that come back,” he said of industrial production.

“Places like Columbus, Ohio, Indianapolis, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, are actually outperforming significantly on a year over year basis than any other parts of the country.”

Fuller linked this shift to broader reindustrialization efforts, saying it reflects policy priorities aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing.

“That tells me that this particular rally is all about the reindustrialization that Donald Trump’s policies have been trying to pursue,” he said.

While imports are currently not contributing to freight growth, Fuller said he expects that to change later in the year as retailers replenish low inventories.

“I still think we’ll see a resurgence of imports come in to the second half of the year,” he said.

“Retailers will need to replenish those inventories, which are actually quite low right now.”

For now, Fuller said the strength in middle-mile and last-mile freight tied to retail and industrial sectors is a healthy sign for the broader economy.

“This is all very good news for truckers,” he said.

“Right now, [imports are] just not a factor, and I think that’s a really positive sign for the overall health of the freight market and the industrial economy.”

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