NEW: Israeli Intel Indicates Khamenei Hit, IRGC Commander Killed in Opening Strikes; Update: One Week Op?

Donald Trump made it clear early this morning at the start of the offensive on Iran that he wanted regime change as the long-range goal. According to Israeli intel assessments, he might have accomplished a decapitation in the opening salvos … maybe. 

Initial indications from intel sources are that Ali Khamenei has at least been hit in the attack, and that the IRGC’s top commander has been killed. The Times of Israel followed up on a report from KAN:

Israel “assesses” that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was likely killed in an Israeli strike earlier today, Channel 12 says, citing unnamed Israeli sources. It says there are “growing indications” to this effect.

There is no official confirmation of the report.

The TV station had minutes earlier said the Israeli assessment was that Khamenei was “hurt at the very least, ” and that this was not an assessment based on satellite imagery showing Khamenei’s presidential compound being flattened, but rather on information from unnamed sources.

The Jerusalem Post corroborates that report, albeit with a bit more caution:

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been cut off from contact, and there is no certainty about his fate, Israeli officials told Walla on Saturday afternoon. Iranian officials promised to release a recording from Khamenei soon after Israeli strikes targeted his Tehran compound.

The preliminary assessment among Israeli officials was that Khamenei was hurt in the strike. No official confirmation has been received by Israeli, American, or Iranian sources. …

Iran’s Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour are believed to have been killed in Israeli attacks, two sources familiar with Israel’s military operations and one regional source said.

Israeli and Iranian sources said earlier on Saturday strikes on Iran killed several senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and Islamic Regime political officials.

We should take some caution in accepting these as facts until more intel comes in. A couple of claimed kills in the Twelve Day War later turned out to have survived, including regime president Masoud Pezeshkian, who had been targeted by accident and survived with some injuries. The Iranian regime has announced that Khamenei will make a televised statement later today, but take that with a major grain of salt, too. They likely had Khamenei pre-record a statement in the event of these attacks to “debunk” his potential death or isolation, as a means to maintain morale among regime forces.

Iran may also have made a very large error in their response. The regime had declared that it would only attack US and Israeli sites in the event of an attack, but their ballistic missile systems do not have precision targeting systems. Their opening barrage hit at least seven nations in the region, and that has the Saudis fuming. They had refused to allow their airspace to be used in any attack on Iran, part of their recent non-aggression agreement with the mullahs. This morning, the Saudis flipped and declared themselves ready to assist in confronting Iran:

Saudi Arabia strongly condemned on Saturday Iran’s “heinous” attack and “flagrant violation” of the sovereignty of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan.

It underlined its complete solidarity with them, adding that it supports all the measures they take to ensure their security, said the Kingdom’s foreign ministry in a statement.

It warned of the “grave consequences of the continued violation of the sovereignty of nations and principles of international law.”

It called for “firm measures to confront the Iranian violations that undermine the region’s security and stability.”

The strikes so far have hit several major areas of Iran, including new strikes on Isfahan. The US bunker-busters did damage to the enrichment facilities in that location, but this week, the IAEA reported that the centrifuges were still operating. The new strikes are clearly intended to finish off that capacity in Isfahan, and to discourage any more expansion of those activities elsewhere no matter who’s left in charge when the smoke clears and the rubble stops bouncing.

The most intense target for strikes is Tehran, of course, the center of power for the mullahs. Regime officials are now encouraging Tehran residents to flee:

⚡️Residents of Tehran are massively leaving the city, — Media. pic.twitter.com/Z64PEFTjBm

— Rolex (@rolex18082) February 28, 2026

Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, reports that officials converted a key highway linking the capital to northern Iran into a one-way route to accommodate the heavy outbound traffic.

The agency reports heavy traffic heading north out of the capital.

Iran’s top national security body had earlier told residents they should consider leaving Tehran for their safety.

Of course, these are early hours. It’s fine to date these first reports, but don’t marry them until you meet their mothers. Speaking of mothers, here’s Tehran’s version of Chip Diller, assuring us that all is well:

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi:

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian are alive, as far as I know.

All high-ranking officials are alive, everything is fine. pic.twitter.com/gNwcODxD6Y

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) February 28, 2026

Take that with a very large grain of salt. 

I’ll add updates as developments warrant. 

Update: Last summer, we saw the Twelve Day War. This time, it may be the Weeklong Whacking:

The strikes on Iran are expected to last at least a week, according to Israeli officials who spoke with Walla. A report by Fox also noted that US officials expect the event to last several days, not just hours.

The difference between the two is that the US is going all-in on sorties along with Israel. The IDF has a lot of capacity, but the US has a much larger scale of offensive and defensive weapons. Combined, we can do a lot more in a week than Israel alone did in twelve days, even with our bunker-buster exclamation point at the end of those hostilities. That makes it clear that the purpose of this operation is not just degradation of nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs, but the demolition of the existing regime. 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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