NEW: Begun, the Battle Of Hormuz Has

As of sixty minutes ago, the US Navy put the Iranian regime out of business. 

UKMTO: U.S. Enforcement Measures Now Impacting Iranian Ports and Hormuz Access https://t.co/FWrBq9RLNd pic.twitter.com/ns9eYvgOsz

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 13, 2026

🚨 NOW: Neutral vessels at Iranian ports have a “LIMITED GRACE PERIOD” to depart the Strait of Hormuz as the US-led blockade commences

Iran is about to be CUT OFF from selling oil!

They should’ve listened to JD Vance in Pakistan.

FAFO is playing out 🔥 pic.twitter.com/o7lf4LCii6

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 13, 2026

Presumably, US Navy warships are now in place to complete minesweeping operations and to set up a defense for international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Once that picket line gets established, nearly 200 tankers with over 170 million barrels of oil can move out to global markets and calm investor fears, allowing oil prices to drop naturally as confidence builds. 

The Iranians responded this morning by threatening all sorts of retaliation to Donald Trump’s Uno reverse card in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump responded directly to those threats on Truth Social:

Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated – 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a threat. Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of Drugs coming into the U.S. by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT

The Wall Street Journal referred to Iran’s “two navies,” but there’s not much threat attached to the second, as Trump noted. We have sunk Iran’s blue-water navy already, and the fast-attack boats of the IRGC amount basically to a minor-league version of a coast guard. The US has carrier-platformed A-10 Warthogs [update: nope, see below] and other air assets that can chew them up as soon as they appear, and if necessary, we can destroy any bases they may have on Larak Island and Abu Masa.

That leaves two questions for the US, primarily Donald Trump: Do we have the resources to make a blockade stick, and do we have the will? Deutsche Welle wondered whether the US had the juice to make the squeeze, as well as whether the juice is worth the squeeze. Sascha Bruchmann of the International Institute for Strategic Studies tells them ja on both counts. It’s essentially a game of chicken, Bruchmann tells DW, but adds, “I think it’s also very dangerous to play a game of chicken with Donald Trump.” The last six weeks have demonstrated that well enough:

It’s not just a game of chicken between two equivalent antagonists. This game of chicken pits a Mack truck against a Yugo with a starter malfunction. Iran has no way to counter a blockade, not with direct military means. The IRGC can re-escalate its missile attacks on neighbors and on any traffic passing through the US Navy screen, but missile destroyers provide a robust defense, as Bruchmann points out, and that risks further escalation by both the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states as well as Trump himself.

The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that Trump has already begun planning his next Mack-truck moves in this game of chicken:

President Trump and his advisers are looking at resuming limited military strikes in Iran in addition to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to break a stalemate in peace talks, according to officials and people familiar with the situation.

That is among the options that Trump was considering Sunday, hours after negotiations collapsed in Pakistan, the officials said. Trump could also resume a full-fledged bombing campaign, though officials said that was less likely given the prospect of further destabilizing the region and the president’s aversion to prolonged military conflicts. He could also seek a more temporary blockade while he pressures allies to take responsibility for a prolonged military escort mission through the strait in the future. …

U.S. officials and other people close to the administration said any option Trump chooses next faces major risks. Relaunching a full-scale war would further drain critical U.S. munitions and expose the president to more backlash from a voting base skeptical of Middle East conflicts. Yet drawing down the military operation while the regime is battered but intact with its nuclear ambitions and control of the strait would be viewed as a victory for Tehran.

Some officials and analysts lauded Trump’s decision to impose a naval blockade on the strait as his best—or least bad—option available. Around half of Iran’s government revenue comes from oil and gas. A successful blockade would choke off Iran’s oil exports, which are the engine of its economy, and demonstrate to U.S. allies and nervous global energy markets that Tehran can’t hold the strait hostage.

Color me skeptical about munitions limitations impacting Trump’s targeting decisions. First off, it won’t take much to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure. A few well-placed precision munitions on turbines and gas fields will collapse the grid for months or longer. The Israelis would be more than happy to carry out those strikes; Trump had to yank the leash on Benjamin Netanyahu to prevent the IDF from escalating in that direction last month. Trump would be more likely to plan out a gradual escalation that depends on Iran’s reaction to the blockade, giving himself maximum leverage in forcing a capitulation. 

The Battle of Hormuz has started now. We’ll see which chooses to veer off first – the Mack Truck or the Yugo. 

Correction: Thank you to readers and friends who pointed out my error on A-10s. They are not able to be carrier-based. Those are coming from various land bases around the Gulf. My apologies!

Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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