LIVE RESULTS: Spanberger’s Gerrymander Goes to VA Voters

Will Virginia voters decide to let NoVA control almost all of its congressional delegation? Or will the Commonwealth reject one of the most ridiculous gerrymanders in American history?

Virginia voters spent the day making that decision. The polls will close shortly (7 PM ET), and … all indications are that it’s still a toss-up. Our friends and partners at Decision Desk HQ offered a status report yesterday that I included in last night’s Final Word, but it’s worth including here, too, as the results come in tonight:

For decades, Virginia politicos spoke reverently of “the Virginia Way,” a governing approach that prioritized civility and restraint. Regardless of whether such a genteel idyll ever truly existed, increased partisan rancor has affected contemporary politics in Virginia much like it has elsewhere in the U.S.

The latest example is the unusual — and controversial — redistricting vote occurring on April 21. Part of the larger national conflict over district lines, Virginia voters will weigh in on a constitutional amendment backed by Democrats that, if successful, could implement a gerrymander that aims to hand Democrats 10 of Virginia’s 11 U.S. House seats — up from six under the current lines.

The “Yes” side appears slightly favored heading into tomorrow’s vote. Still, polls point to a competitive race that the “No” camp could still win. Millions of dollars have poured into Virginia to influence the contest, reflecting the stakes involved. Understandably, voters appear split along partisan lines.

There hasn’t been a lot of polling on this referendum, and none from national pollsters, apparently. RealClearPolling hasn’t tracked polling at all, but DDHQ gives the results from four boutique polling outlets. Two of them show Yes ahead by five points, one with No edging ahead by a single point, and the most recent poll from Quantus Insights of 1,003 likely voters had Yes up by four, 51/47. Quantus published that last week, and it’s a significant sample, so one has to hope for a strong turnout.

That’s not the only hope, as DDHQ points out, but a defeat at the polls would negate the legal action pending at the state supreme court:

Still, even if the amendment passes, there could still be another twist in Virginia’s redistricting tale. That’s because the Virginia Supreme Court still has to consider legal challenges to the measure that could block a new map from taking effect.

The odds of the state supreme court overturning voter approval of a referendum backed by Democrats in Virginia are probably somewhere between slim and none. Still, it’s slightly better than a Dumb & Dumber chance, and there may be a case for federal courts to review this Frankenmander map.

The bright spot for tonight may be that it’s still close in polling. The No campaign got a late start on fundraising and spending, and wound up at less than half of the spending from the Yes campaign, $19.5M to $50.5M. The opposition to the referendum got outspent on the air every single week of the campaign, and of course, the Protection Racket Media has helped push the effort. All of that may not have covered the stench of this power grab by NoVA, however; we’ll see tonight. 

Keep up with the vote totals with the widget below from our friends at Decision Desk HQ. And cross your fingers that the voters in Virginia are smart enough to stop this.

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