The public is hammering San Antonio, but the betting value is on Portland in Game 5

You could argue the Portland Trail Blazers (1-3) should be tied in their first-round series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the San Antonio Spurs (3-1) heading back to the Alamo City for Game 5 Tuesday.

Portland held halftime leads in Games 3 and 4 at home but lost both by double digits. The Trail Blazers had a chance to take control of the series when Victor Wembanyama missed Game 3 with a concussion. Then, Portland blew a 17-point halftime lead and was outscored 73-65 in the second half.

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With their backs against the wall, the Trail Blazers are roughly +12 road underdogs, and Game 5’s total is 216.5. That said, I’ll take the points with Portland Tuesday because San Antonio is a young team that’s never closed out a postseason series.

Best Bet: Portland Trail Blazers +12, down to +9.5

Following those two brutal losses in Games 3 and 4, the public assumes Portland will “let go of the rope” on the road down 3-1 Tuesday. According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the action is on San Antonio at the time of writing.

It’s tough getting off the mat and going on the road after those two gut-punch losses. However, I’m fading that narrative because the Spurs are massive favorites in a spot they aren’t familiar with. Will they get tight if the game hits “clutch time,” and who runs their offense late?

Trail Blazers PG Jrue Holiday has the most playoff experience of anyone in this series and is ballin’. Holiday is averaging 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game in this series. If Jrue can outplay San Antonio PG De’Aaron Fox, whose game I hate, Portland can keep Game 5 close.

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Also, the Spurs are due for shooting regression from deep, whereas the Blazers have gotten unlucky from 3-point range. They are both averaging 17.0 “wide-open” 3-point attempts in this series, but San Antonio is hitting 45.6% of them, while Portland is making just 35.0% of its wide-open threes.

“Wide-open” threes are when the shooter has at least six feet from the nearest defender. The Spurs might be tighter in a closeout game, leading to more missed 3-pointers. I guess you could say the same thing about the Trail Blazers, but they aren’t double-digit favorites.

Finally, playoff games slow down as the series progresses, and these teams were tied with the third-best defensive efficiency post-All-Star break, per CleaningTheGlass.com. So, give me Portland as double-digit ‘dogs in a slow-paced game between two elite defenses.

Prediction: Spurs 109, Trail Blazers 103

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