A May 2026 AtlasIntel national poll found that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now leading the 2028 Republican field with 45% support, ahead of Vice President JD Vance (30%), who was leading the same poll by 24 points in December 2025.
On a recent episode of the “Steve Deace Show,” Deace and his panel of co-hosts Todd Erzen and Aaron MacIntyre along with Rob Eno, Blaze News managing editor, addressed the legitimacy of the “Rubio surge” and what it means for the MAGA movement.
“Are we buying the Rubio surge?” Deace asks the group.
Erzen believes the Vance vs. Rubio conversation is really just an attempt to “make people care” again.
“They’re clearly both decent men, capable men. But we’ve got a hundred other things that should be priorities other than turning this into sports radio, but this is what the entire movement does because it’s not good at really doing anything else,” he sighs.
Eno speculates that Rubio’s visibility is a likely contributor to the polling numbers.
“Do I think that Rubio has surged a little bit because he’s gotten the spotlight? Probably. … Do I think that it matters right now before the midterms? Probably not,” he says.
AtlasIntel’s new polling results, he argues, are likely influenced by the age and media consumption of the voters.
Pointing to a Quantus poll that exposed a massive age split among GOP primary voters in the Thomas Massie race, Eno says there’s an “insane” difference between “old Boomers that watch Fox News and the younger, Vance-type, America First, MAGA people.”
Given Rubio’s high polling numbers, he believes that older Republicans likely dominated the survey population. But as they “age out,” we might see Vance’s number swell, as younger audiences begin to make up a larger share of the Republican primary electorate.
MacIntyre expresses skepticism about Rubio’s 15-point lead over Vance.
“I don’t think that Marco Rubio is 15 points ahead at this point. I think it’s closer than maybe a lot of people who think that Vance is a shoo-in would like to admit,” he says.
Deace believes that the AtlasIntel poll is less about genuine Rubio vs. Vance support and more about “dissatisfaction with the direction of the Trump administration as a whole.”
He explains that with Trump pouring almost all his “political capital” into foreign policy (Rubio’s domain as secretary of state), Rubio benefits from a clear, high-visibility message that makes him look strong, while Vance is left handling the tougher, less popular domestic issues like cutting waste and fraud. The poll, therefore, is less about the two individual men and more about where the administration is focusing its energy.
Deace reiterates Eno’s point about the deep divide among the conservative base regarding what it means to be “America First.”
“We’re determining what is the base right now,” says Deace.
“This time last year, we were coming on the tail end of Trump’s offensive right out of the inauguration gate. We were all very united. There was an agenda. Right now, nobody knows what the agenda is,” he continues.
But a year and a half into Trump’s second term, the conservative base is confused and deeply divided over domestic and foreign priorities.
“We’re spending way more political capital on Iran and the Middle East than we were willing to spend to clean up Minneapolis, our own borders, mass deportations, or anything else, and so this has created a mass schism right down the middle,” says Deace.
“All I think this [poll] is right now is a snapshot that shows this space is very divided overall on what our priorities ought to be.”
To hear more, watch the episode above.
To enjoy more of Steve’s take on national politics, Christian worldview, and principled conservatism with a snarky twist, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.
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