I’ve lost my Sunday tabs, they’ll not be back again …
Just briefed by a senior Trump admin official. I feel VERY good about where the Iran negotiations are going.
TOPLINE: “NO DUST, NO DOLLARS” — Iran doesn’t get a dime unless they actually produce real results.
Details:
The Trump administration believes it is now just days away…
— Vince Coglianese (@VinceCoglianese) May 24, 2026
The Trump administration believes it is now just days away from a memorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime.
It won’t be signed today or tomorrow, the official says, but that’s primarily because communication with Iranian leadership moves very slowly. It takes “their system five or six days to actually approve” anything. “Fundamentally, it’s very hard for them to even give us an answer.”
“95 percent of this is done, but literally changing words requires, occasionally, days of deliberation within their system.”
“We’re mostly there and we feel like we’ve got a commitment on the enriched stockpile. We feel like we’ve got a commitment on the Strait of Hormuz. And we’re haggling a little bit over some of the language.”
Ed: No, I am not going to commit to Sunday FW posts on an ongoing basis, but the story on the deal with Iran has shifted enough to warrant an update. I don’t think I’ll have an FW for tomorrow night, but circumstances may dictate that too. At any rate, the White House is making it very clear that it has no intention of doing another JCPOA. This time, the Iranian concessions must come first and be verified, they claim. There are corroborating accounts about these briefings, so at least this is the deal that the White House thinks it’s getting. We’ll see.
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WSJ: “I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, his social-media platform. The U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping would remain in place until an agreement “is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and get it right,” he said.
The president’s statement followed shortly after a senior Trump administration official told reporters the agreement in principle is for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade on Iranian shipping. Specific details, including on whether Iran would permanently dismantle its nuclear program, remain in flux and would be hashed out in further negotiations.
The official said it could take Tehran’s leadership some time to sign off on the framework, though a delay could also manifest over continued differences between the sides, especially over what economic benefits Iran gets from a locked-in cease-fire or final agreement.
Ed: This is what the earlier Axios report, on which I wrote earlier, indicated as well. The Iranians like to throw spanners in the works at every stage.
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🚨After receiving a briefing from a Senior TRUMP Administration Official on the status of the Iran negotiations (someone in the know & not just speculating), I can tell you the following:
-USA IS NOT GIVING IRANIANS MONEY FOR NOTHING. All speculation and propaganda to the…
— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) May 24, 2026
Deal should have 2 phases:
Step 1 – Open Strait of Hormuz. Give world economy breathing room. Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium.
Step 2 – Get the nuclear material turned over. Only then can Iran get sanctions relief.
Bottom line: goal is to make a deal that lowers costs for Americans, calms world energy markets, and guarantees that Iranians cannot have a nuclear weapon over the long term. We aren’t there yet. Iran takes forever to get you a response on even small things. But we are close although it still could be a few days.
“If we get what we are demanding, this is going to be a historic deal,” SAO says.
Ed: That’s still a mighty big if. But this does look like the opposite of the JCPOA approach, which purportedly attempted to curry favor with “moderates” by front-loading sanctions relief and asset transfers. The fact that the US will remain fully mobilized until all aspects of the deal are complete also suggests Trump is serious about keeping his options open. But what are they, realistically speaking? Hmmm …
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Amichai Stein at the Jerusalem Post: As a result, an informal coalition emerged – from Qatar to the United Arab Emirates – with a clear message for Trump: do not attack.
Trump himself made a remark several days ago that has taken on greater significance in recent days: “If there’s a deal that’s good for the Gulf states, it’s good for me as well.” In other words, he had no intention of being more hawkish than America’s Gulf partners.
Under the emerging framework agreement with Iran, all US forces would remain deployed in the region, and Trump would retain the option of striking Iran should it violate the agreement or stall the negotiations.
But if the president was not genuinely interested in starting a war now, despite having no shortage of justifications, why would he choose to do so 60 days from now, on the eve of the congressional and Senate midterm elections?
Ed: That’s a very good question. The IRGC has been using its usual stall tactics to increase pressure on Trump to pull out. This deal doesn’t do that, but can Ahmad Vahidi run out the string on the 60-day period and then thumb his nose at Trump? Perhaps, but that’s 60 more days of a full-on naval blockade, too.
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From a senior administration official re: Iran:
– This MOU framework gives us 60 days to reach final deal points that will deliver on President Trump’s priorities and ensure the United States and the region are safer and more prosperous going forward.
– The president has…
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) May 24, 2026
– Unlike past agreements where America paid Iran upfront and hoped they’d comply, this MOU is structured so Iran gets nothing until they deliver. That’s the difference between a dealmaker and a hostage payer.
– The region is uniting behind the United States under President Trump’s leadership. There’s no way this could have happened without the entire region uniting behind it.
– As a result, we’re on a path for this to be the President’s second time reshaping the Middle East. It started with the Abraham Accords, this is the Abraham Accords Plus. Everyone’s talking now. More economic normalization agreements are possible. This could be just the beginning.
– The MOU ensures we and our allies — and the Iranians and their proxies — cease fighting across the region. It also guarantees Israel’s right to act against imminent threats. They, as we all do, have a right to self defense.
Ed: The entire region except Israel, although Netanyahu has been relatively quiet about it. He didn’t exactly come out and endorse this MOU, but he’s not publicly objecting to it either …
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I spoke last night with President @realDonaldTrump about the memorandum of understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.
I expressed my deep appreciation to President Trump for his unwavering…
— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) May 24, 2026
I expressed my deep appreciation to President Trump for his unwavering commitment to Israel’s security, including during Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, when American and Israeli forces fought shoulder to shoulder against the Iranian threat.
President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger. That means dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory.
President Trump also reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon.
The partnership between us and our two countries has been proven on the battlefield and has never been stronger.
My policy, like President Trump’s, remains unchanged: Iran will not have nuclear weapons.
Ed: That’s neither an objection or an endorsement. It is an acknowledgment that Trump is in charge, a point that should have some resonance here in the US, where critics of Israel claim Netanyahu is leading Trump by the nose. Israel has to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon that ends its offensive operations against Hezbollah, to which Netanyahu strenuously objected. Did he get something significant for his cooperation?
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Barak Ravid at Axios: President Trump told leaders of several Arab and other Muslim countries during a Saturday conference call that if a deal to end the Iran war is achieved he wants their nations to sign peace agreements with Israel, per two U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the call.
Why it matters: Trump’s remarks on Israel and the countries signing onto the Abraham Accords during the call signal the next big step he wants to take in the Middle East after the war. …
Trump told the leaders that after the war with Iran ends he expects all of them who are still not part of the Abraham Accords or don’t have peace agreements with Israel to join and normalize relations with the Jewish state, two U.S. officials said.
The leaders, especially those of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan who don’t have formal diplomatic relations with Israel, were surprised by Trump’s request. “There was silence on the line and Trump joked and asked if they are still there,” one of the U.S. officials said.
Trump then told the leaders that his envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff will follow up on this issue in the coming weeks.
Ed: That’s likely the key piece in all of this. Trump is letting the Gulf states and Pakistan convince him to avoid another round of strikes, but they will need to pay up for their place at the table. This makes Netanyahu’s cautious acquiescence look strategic indeed.
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This is very serious, and we will NOT have a good deal if it overlooks the current regime’s vicious brutality, and leaves it to reconstitute itself with revenue boosted by loosening of the blockade and sanctions. https://t.co/nIFrUmaxaN
— J.E. Dyer ☘️ (@OptimisticCon) May 24, 2026
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