House Republicans hold a narrow majority, with Democrats needing only a net gain of 3 seats to seize control in the 2026 midterms. Still, not all Democrats agree on the direction to win back the majority, putting their midterm hopes in jeopardy.
Republican vulnerabilities center on the cost of living. Recent inflation data show prices rising at the highest annual rate since 2023, driven in part by the Trump administration’s war in Iran, which is disrupting energy markets. Tariffs and other policies have compounded pressures on groceries, housing, gas, and utilities.
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