Why you should back the Indiana Fever to cover the spread against the New York Liberty Tuesday

As long as there is no football, Caitlin Clark is must-see TV. Clark and the Indiana Fever (20-12) host the New York Liberty (20-13) Tuesday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. At FanDuel, Indiana is a -2.5 favorite (-106) with a -134 moneyline on a 192.5 total.

These teams split their first two meetings this season, with the home team winning and covering both: New York 83-75 in June and Indiana 108-88 in July.

However, the Fever won their game more convincingly. In the Liberty’s win, they were down entering the fourth quarter and got 24 more free throws (40-16). Indy outperformed New York in three of the “four factors” and won despite Clark playing poorly (only 17 points on 5-of-14 shooting with 7 turnovers).

Since that game, Clark has been ballin’. She is averaging 25.0 points on 49.4% field goal shooting (43.5% from behind the arc) and 9.5 assists in the six games since the last Liberty-Fever meeting.

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Best bet: Indiana Fever -2.5 (-106)

For what it’s worth, Clark is on the injury report as “probable” and, obviously, Indiana’s price would come down if she is ruled out. But I’m taking a shot while expecting her to play because the Fever can win this game by margin even if Clark doesn’t play.

They have two other All-Stars: C Aliyah Boston and SG Kelsey Mitchell, who might be better than Clark. Mitchell leads the team in scoring with 24.2 points per game on 50.4% shooting, and Boston is a four-time WNBA All-Star and a former No. 1 overall pick in 2023.

Indiana Fever All-Star Kelsey Mitchell drives past New York Liberty forward Satou Sabally at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

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Also, Indiana has won three of its last five games since playing New York last month, but those two losses were to the first-place Minnesota Lynx and the reigning WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces on a buzzer-beater in overtime.

The Liberty are 7-1 straight up in their last game vs. the Fever, but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS). Indy’s game was Saturday and New York’s was Sunday. Indiana is 10-4 ATS with a rest edge this season, and the Liberty are 2-10 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

Meanwhile, there’s a chance Indy is bonding with all the drama around this team, from Sophie Cunningham getting clotheslined to her public commentary about transgender people playing women’s sports, and anything involving Clark.

Sophie Cunningham drives to the basket as DiJonai Carrington fouls her during a WNBA game.

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Obviously, that isn’t something I can quantify, but I feel like there is a “us against the world” card the Fever can play in the locker room. Whether Indiana head coach Stephanie White is using that as motivation, or doing anything positive for her team, is another conversation.