PGA TOUR 2026: BMW Championship best bets at Bellerive Country Club for the FedExCup Playoffs

We are down to 50 golfers as the second round of the PGA TOUR’s 2026 FedExCup Playoffs heads to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, for the BMW Championship. After the BMW, the top 30 players of the FedExCup standings advance to East Lake for next week’s TOUR Championship.

Bellerive is a long par-70 (7,448 yards) with bentgrass greens that has hosted a few majors, most recently the 2018 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka. With rain forecasted to soften conditions even further, expect a birdie-fest where elite driving and dialed-in iron play will determine the winner.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler got the monkey off his back by winning his second tournament this year — his first since the 2026 season opener — at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. Scottie absolutely dummied the field, winning the St. Jude by eight strokes, and he was the only guy to shoot double-digit under par.

‘PAR TALK: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER TERRORIZES MEMPHIS, RORY MCILROY COMPLETELY MAILS IT IN, AND JORDAN SPIETH IS DONE

With that in mind, I’d understand if you bet in the “Winner without Scottie Scheffler” markets. I wouldn’t be shocked if Scottie wins the BMW and the TOUR Championship next week, but I just can’t bet him at +300 or lower. Instead, I’m wasting 2.19 units (u) on outrights and 2.5u on placement bets on the losers below.

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.

🇺🇸 Chris Gotterup +3000 (0.67u) and Top-10 with ties +189 (0.75u), both at Kalshi

🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama +3000 at FanDuel (0.67u) and Top-10 with ties +198 at Kalshi (0.75u)

🇺🇸 Collin Morikawa +3800 at DraftKings (0.53u) and Top-10 with ties +265 at Kalshi (0.5u)

🇺🇸 Michael Thorbjornsen +5500 at BetMGM (0.36u) and Top-10 with ties +312 (0.5u), both at Kalshi

Chris Gotterup

One of Gotterup’s three wins this season, and his most recent, the John Deere Classic, was at another Midwest course with bentgrass greens. His other two wins this year were the Sony Open in Hawaii and the WM Phoenix Open in the desert, and his breakthrough win last season was the Genesis Scottish Open. I.e., Gotterup’s game travels well.

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That said, it doesn’t make sense why Gotterup has worse odds than Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Åberg, none of whom have won this year. Gotterup is one of 14 golfers who made the cut at every major this season, and he ranks fifth in my model at Betsperts Golf, ahead of those three guys.

Bellerive is a driver-heavy course, and Gotterup ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee over the last 24 rounds, per Betsperts Golf. Seven of the top-10 at the 2018 PGA Championship at Bellerive ranked in the top-10 of SG: Ball-Striking (driving and approach) that week, and Gotterup is fourth in this field in ball-striking over the last 24 rounds.

Hideki Matsuyama

The bottom line is Matsuyama’s odds are too long — tied for the 11th at FanDuel — for how well he is playing. My guy, Hideki, made me money again last week by finishing T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He has six consecutive T14-or-better finishes, including four straight T7s or better.

Also, I want to bet a golfer who is lighting it up because the weather forecast is predicting rain in St. Louis this week, which will make Bellerive softer and easier, aka, more birdies. Well, Matsuyama leads this field in birdie-or-better rate over the last 24 rounds, according to Betsperts Golf.

Furthermore, he ranks second in this field for ball-striking over the last 12 rounds but 31st in short-game (chipping and putting), per Betsperts Golf. I’m more focused on his good ball-striking because that’s more predictive and Hideki has one of the best short-games in the world.

Meaning, as long as Matsuyama keeps pounding fairways off the tee and pin-hunting with his irons, he should continue scoring and contend at Bellerive this week.

Collin Morikawa

These odds are disrespectful. Collin was +2500 at last week’s St. Jude (T52) and +3000 at the 2026 British Open (T18) with deeper and tougher fields. I get that Bellerive is more of a “bomber’s course,” but Morikawa’s ball-striking accuracy can help him anywhere.

Morikawa leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach this season and ranks 10th in driving accuracy. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February and made the cut at all four majors this year, featuring a T7 at The Masters, and Augusta is one of the most driver-heavy courses in the world.

Bentgrass is Collin’s best putting surface. He gained strokes on the greens at Aronimink (host of the 2026 PGA Championship) and Augusta this year, and both have much tougher green complexes than Bellerive.

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Ultimately, this is just a good price for Morikawa, who is one of the few golfers with an A-game that can beat Scheffler’s B-game, which is all that matters considering how much win equity Scottie has this week.

Michael Thorbjornsen

Supposedly, the sharps are betting Thorbjornsen. He is going for +5000 or higher at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Kalshi. However, Bookmaker lists him at +4274 as of Tuesday evening, and Bookmaker is considered a sharp sportsbook for golf betting.

Thorbjornsen got his first TOUR win at another Midwest, driver-heavy course with bent greens (the Rocket Classic) two starts back. His other best finishes this year were at similar courses to Bellerive, including a T3 in Phoenix, T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, 16th at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T7 in Scotland.

He has gained strokes across the board (driving, approach, chipping and putting) over the last 24 rounds. Thorbjornsen is starting to live up to the hype he got after being the 2024 PGA TOUR University valedictorian, and Bellerive fits his game well.

2026 BMW Championship ‘One-and-Done’ Pick: Chris Gotterup

Mayo Cup season standings: 4,386th with $6,003,249

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