We don’t generally see many polls of House districts, but there’s a new survey of voters in TX-23 that has some encouraging news for Brandon “The AK Guy” Herrera and his congressional campaign.
Remington Research Group is out with the first poll of the district in about five months, and Herrera is leading his Democrat opponent by a healthy margin.
The survey showed Herrera with 47 percent of the vote – six points above Democrat Katie Padilla Stout. Another ten percent said they are undecided, and two percent said “someone else.”
The survey was taken July 25-28, 2026, among 572 likely general election voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.
While Herrera has a lead outside of the Remington poll’s margin of error, it’s not time to pop open a Shiner to celebrate.
For one thing, Herrera’s 6-point lead is just a fraction of what disgraced former congressman Tony Gonzales received in the 2024 election. Two years ago Gonzales trounced Democrat Santos Limon 62-38. There are a lot of undecideds in Remington’s poll, and Herrera should receive support from a majority of them given the Republican leanings of the district, but Padilla Stout is still running ahead of where Democrats ended up in 2024.
The fact that Herrera is polling below 50 percent is also a little concerning. Again, I suspect that number will rise as we get closer to election day, but I’d feel a lot better if he had already locked down a majority, especially since Remington is a conservative pollster.
The only other poll of TX-23 was conducted back in March, and it was run by the Democrat-aligned Public Policy Polling. That survey had Herrera up by just two points, 42-40. Assuming both polls are reasonably accurate, Herrera has made substantial progress in adding to his lead, while Padilla Stout has only gained a handful of supporters over the past five months.
That’s another sign in Herrera’s favor, but there’s still a wild card that could impact the race. While Democrats have been reluctant to commit any real financial resources to support Stout, the media has come to her defense by going on offense against Herrera. He’s already been the subject of a column and news story in the New York Times, and as we get closer to Election Day I’m sure that there will be more hit pieces coming out against him.
TX-23 is home to Uvalde, where in 2022 a deranged killer murdered 21 students and teachers at Robb Elementary. The shooting and the aftermath haven’t led to big political changes in the city or surrounding legislative districts, but Democrats and their allies in the media are going to continue to try to make Herrera’s unfettered support for the Second Amendment a key issue this fall.
New poll was just released!
We are up by 6 points, leading my opponent 47 to 41.
Even with all of the slander and boldface lies her campaign has been throwing around, the people of Texas aren’t falling for it. They’re rejecting DSA radicals like her in favor of common sense. pic.twitter.com/w03o1sQbag
— Brandon Herrera (@TheAKGuy) August 19, 2026
Democrats are counting on that issue to drive up turnout among women voters, who are far more supportive of gun control than men. The Left’s continued attacks on the right to keep and bear arms could end up backfiring on Stout by energizing the GOP base in what is usually a bad election year for the party in power in D.C.
Herrera also has a sizable fundraising lead over Stout, but if the gun control lobby decides to make the district one of their top election priorities that could easily change, and their outside spending could give her campaign a boost even without adding to her fundraising totals.
I’d much rather be in Brandon Herrera’s shoes right now than Katy Padilla Stout’s, but gun owners and Second Amendment advocates shouldn’t be thinking that Herrera’s already sewn up his seat in Congress. If you want to see Herrera victorious on Election Day, you should be supporting his campaign right now.
Editor’s Note: President Trump and Republicans across the country are doing everything they can to protect our Second Amendment rights and right to self-defense.
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