Dems’ Agenda Is They/Them II: Musk PAC Enters the Midterms

Remember this ad? Elon Musk certainly does:

Many 2024 post-mortems focused on this one attack ad as the fulcrum of Donald Trump’s victory. It instantly painted Kamala Harris as an out-of-touch extremist who would obsess over the fringe while ignoring mainstream America. The attack had power because it was based on truth, as even the New York Times was forced to concede at the time. While the election hinged on a number of factors – Harris’ general incompetence and incoherence, profligate spending, and the Joe Biden cover-up among them – no attack ad hit harder in that cycle.

Does this attack still have the power to separate the “they/them” from “you and me”? Musk’s America PAC plans to lay down a significant amount of money in four key Senate races to test the theory, according to Axios:

Driving the news: In a series of just-launched ads, America PAC goes after Democratic Senate candidates in four competitive races over transgender athletes, gender-transition care and other trans issues.

• The PAC’s emphasis on trans issues is striking because that’s been a much less prominent theme in GOP Senate ads so far this election cycle, per AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.

The ads, which are running online and on streaming platforms, attack Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, Iowa’s Josh Turek, Texas’ James Talarico and Alaska’s Mary Peltola.

• They’re among the first batch of ads from America PAC, which Musk has reportedly authorized to spend upwards of $100 million in the midterms.

To an extent, this is Musk playing defense. Each of these contests is a seat Democrats think they can flip against the GOP in this cycle. Each of them looks relatively close in polling at this point too, although polls in this cycle have performed worse than usual in a predictive sense. (Ask Francesca Wong in Wisconsin where her 20-point lead went.) The first rule in elections is to defend your current seats.

This also makes sense, though, because Democrats in all four states are trying to pretend moderation with radical/progressive candidates. That includes Ohio, where the ad from Musk’s super PAC is already running against Sherrod Brown’s comeback bid:

New —

Elon Musk’s super PAC America PAC is going up with its first connected TV ad of the cycle.

It’s against Sherrod Brown in #OHSen. pic.twitter.com/vEbIc88J9w

— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) September 8, 2026

Will this be effective in the midterms? Axios’ Mike Zapler sounds skeptical:

America PAC’s focus on trans issues comes as Republicans face a brutal midterm environment. Voters across party lines are angry about the Iran war and stubbornly high prices that have come with it. …

On its face, the strategy is at odds with what voters say they want candidates to talk about. Concerns about the economy dominate; trans and LGBT issues barely register.

First off, this overlooks some critical context. Candidates can address the economy; super-PACs and other outside groups can work on other issues. But even if these issues do not rank high in issue polls, they may still matter. The WNBA’s crisis over biological identity has made headlines for weeks now, thanks to an ESPN reporter who stirred the pot with Sophie Cunningham and touched off a massive paroxysm of grievance politics on the Left. The amplitude of media coverage this summer over Cunningham and her position on biological identity belies the idea that this will be some sort of esoteric issue to the electorate. 

Musk – or at least the people running America PAC – likely see this as an identifier issue for voters. It goes beyond policy to, well, identity, just as it did in 2024. Politicians who play the pronoun game and refuse to oppose pediatric sex-change therapies will stand out like sore thumbs in states like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and especially Texas. This is less of an issue ad than it is a values ad, and again, that’s exactly how it played two years ago as well. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean it will have the same power. However, until it proves otherwise, Musk and his PAC are spending money wisely.