The mass-deportation promise is disappearing

At the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas last week, Vice President JD Vance said, “Under Donald Trump’s leadership, we have seen the foreign-born share of our population drop by 3 million people. That’s illegal aliens that we sent back home.” That is not true, and I wish he hadn’t said it.

The first sentence appears to round a recent estimate that the total foreign-born population fell by 2.9 million. The second recasts that estimate as 3 million illegal aliens whom the administration sent home. That is not what the underlying study says. But Vance said what he said, and if we are going to be straight shooters with Americans, then we need to hold all our political leaders to the same standard. That is especially true when it comes to the base’s favorite candidate for the next Republican presidential nomination.

It’s one thing not to mention mass deportation, but quite another to throw out numbers that nobody believes and the government’s own public data does not support.

With all due respect to the vice president, who has earned a deep reservoir of trust and support, we still need to be clear-eyed if we are going to build momentum for a mass deportation campaign.

As the vice president himself has said, “We need people to be pushing back from inside the tent.” We cannot accept premature celebrations in place of action. There could be a million explanations for how that statistic made it into the speech instead of the term “mass deportation” itself. My read is that someone ordered them not to speak about mass deportation at the convention, so it may have been hard to come up with something to say in its place. I have drafted and edited my fair share of speeches over the years. Group projects can take on lives of their own, and things end up in speeches that should not.

I was on the ground in Dallas, and I heard no speaker use the term “mass deportation.” It was a noticeable departure from the term’s prominence at the 2024 Republican National Convention, where viewers and attendees saw signs calling for “mass deportation now” while President Trump promised the “largest” deportation operation in history.

The promised mass-deportation campaign has not come to pass, and the absence of any reference to it just two years later speaks volumes about the abandonment of the cause.

The only reference to mass deportation I caught at the convention came from Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin during an offstage interview. “Our base wants mass deportation. We need mass deportation,” he said. Mullin, who receives the sharpest mix of criticism and encouragement, including from yours truly and the Mass Deportation Coalition, deserves credit for at least being willing to say it. Obviously, doing it is what matters, but it starts with saying it.

Instead of mass deportation, we have a growing scandal over basic deportation data. ICE has not released its fiscal year 2025 annual report, which congressional appropriators directed the agency to issue within 90 days of the fiscal year’s end. The ICE dashboard that was regularly updated, even during the Obama and Biden years, has not posted new removal data since November 2024.

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In place of numbers are far-fetched claims and surface-level figures tossed out on social media and suspiciously amplified by networks of influencers. I suspect the amplification is not organic. Many of the posts are not even logical on their own terms, including one I saw recently claiming that ICE achieved a monthly record of 50,000 arrests. It then multiplied that “record” by the 20 months President Trump has been in office and claimed that 3 million people had therefore been deported. But 50,000 multiplied by 20 is 1 million, not 3 million. And arrests are not deportations. Nonetheless, the 3 million claim made the rounds on social media.

Then came another 3-million claim, this time drawn from a study based on the Current Population Survey, a voluntary monthly household survey used to measure the labor force. The study estimated that the total foreign-born population fell by 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026. It also preliminarily estimated that the illegal immigrant population fell by 2.3 million, from 15.8 million to 13.5 million. Importantly, that is an estimated net change in population, not a count of people deported. The study says the change can reflect new arrivals, deportations, voluntary emigration, legalizations, and deaths.

Vance also said Americans had competed for jobs and homes against “25 million new illegal immigrants.” If you are confused, then you are in the right place. The new claim that 3 million illegal aliens were sent home rests not on administrative deportation records but on an extrapolation from the survey, which does not ask respondents about their immigration status. It is a stretch to turn that estimate into 3 million illegal aliens “sent back home,” especially after claiming moments earlier that 25 million new illegal immigrants had competed with Americans for jobs and homes.

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None of this should even be part of the argument or public conversation. The Trump administration has administrative data on removals and returns; it is choosing not to release a detailed public accounting.

This should be among the easiest data to track and compile in all of government. Each formal removal or return generates case records and departure paperwork. Officials review those figures regularly. They know what I know: Actual interior deportations are far below the estimates being bandied about.

My estimate is that interior removals are probably closer to one-sixth of the 3 million the administration claims. I have sued the DHS with the Oversight Project to obtain this data, but the agency is still spending taxpayer money on lawyers to keep it hidden. It is a cover-up and a scandal, and there are unfortunately no better words for it.

It’s unfortunate that the ascendant vice president decided to jump headfirst into the deportation-data mess. It’s one thing not to mention mass deportation, but quite another to throw out numbers that nobody believes and the government’s own public data does not support.