Middle East Crude Running at 80 Percent of Pre-War Levels

Sometimes you see a couple of little factoids that are cheerful enough to help make your day, give you a little extra boost, or give you that ‘Aha‘ moment.

These were mine this afternoon.

For one thing, crude oil shipments out of the Middle East, thanks to the valiant efforts of our Navy keeping Iranian attacks at bay, and the adeptness of the Saudis and others at switching methods of shipping vis-à-vis pipelines, etc. not subject to small boat attacks have led to a multi-pronged strategy that has been making steady progress returning volume to what it was before the US struck Iran.

CHART OF THE DAY: Crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar (via all routes). At a huge costs and with the help of the US Navy, the group has lifted oil exports to nearly 80% of pre-war levels (Important to note is only *crude*). pic.twitter.com/9lidYlF0qw

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 28, 2026

What could be even more important to the effort is what our Navy has done to the Iranians’ exports in the Strait of Hormuz, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has shut down nearly all their other avenues for funding. Oil sales are the regime’s last desperate hope for raising the cash they need to pay salaries and keep their wolves at bay.

The Iranian flow of crude has basically shrunk to nothing, as you can see from the chart below.

They have no way to raise any money from their oil – it’s completely blockaded.

This is insane.

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are almost back to pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, Iranian exports have literally hit zero.

Blockading Iran’s blockade actually worked.

Iran can’t stand this for much longer. pic.twitter.com/fhhGlAX280

— Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) September 28, 2026

The squeeze is most assuredly and mercilessly on, and AI analysis of available data confirms both it and the increasing rate of crude leaving the region safely. 

Independent data from Kpler and tanker trackers aligns with the chart: non-Iranian Persian Gulf crude flows recovered sharply in September to roughly 12-13 mb/d via Hormuz and bypass routes (Fujairah, Oman STS, Yanbu), the highest since the February war began, though still…

— Grok (@grok) September 28, 2026

…the highest since the February war began, though still several mb/d below pre-war peaks near 18-20. Iranian loadings at Kharg have been near zero for weeks under the reimposed US naval blockade, with no confirmed outbound transits since mid-July. The blockade has cut Iran’s main revenue stream while other Gulf exports resumed, weakening Tehran’s leverage. Economic strain is evident, but duration remains uncertain.

Another thing I learned today is how dependent the world is on imported diesel, including our country. 

But wait, Beege – we have refineries cranking away, you say. And I would have thought so, too. Maybe they just couldn’t keep up.

But that’s apparently not the crunch at all, which is what’s causing these hideous diesel prices that eventually find their way into everything we buy.

…Last week, Russia said it would extend a ban on diesel exports until the end of October, as Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries continued, despite President Donald Trump’s call on the Zelensky government to stop attacking energy infrastructure, blaming the diesel price surge solely on those attacks. The latest attack came on Sunday, targeting one of Russia’s largest refineries.

However, the loss of fuel supply from the Middle East is much larger, the Wall Street Journal reported last week, citing figures from the International Energy Agency showing the amount of diesel output lost in the Middle East was three times as high as lost Russian supply.

Now, there are calls in Congress for a U.S. ban on diesel exports. Rep. Tim Burchett tabled a bill to that effect last week, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune has backed the proposal. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum oppose it as a bad idea that would ultimately backfire, but the very fact that some legislators considered an export ban suggests the supply situation is pretty grim even for the world’s largest oil producer.

Here in the U.S., and for sure in Europe, you can kiss a climate cultist for those $9.99-a-gallon diesel prices locally and the shortages, if there are any.

Sure, Iran’s not helping anything, but we couldn’t refine it if we had it.

…Diesel prices underpin the price of pretty much everything else. When they rise, other prices follow, notably food prices, to which people are particularly sensitive. This is of particular concern in Washington ahead of the midterm elections in November, hence the idea of an export ban. A ban could bring down prices at home, but it would push prices even higher elsewhere, aggravating an already quite grave fuel supply crisis. It is a crisis that no one could have foreseen, but also one that might have arguably been less grave had there been more refining capacity in the world.

The fact is that over the past decade or so, a lot of refineries have been shut down under pressure from the net-zero movement that has come to dominate energy policies, mainly in Europe, but also in the U.S. under Democratic administrations. Refining had become a losing game for many, so they either shut down or converted their capacity to biofuels.

“We’ve seen the oil majors effectively reduce their exposure to that sector because the returns on actual capital employed have been poor,” Wood Mackenzie senior VP for refining, chemicals, and oil markets Alan Gelder told the Wall Street Journal. “The classic phrase we used was: ‘How do you make a small fortune? Take a large fortune and build a refinery.’”

While refineries closed in Europe and the United States, however, Middle Eastern petrostates built new ones, coming to account for a bigger portion of global refining capacity. Profit, per the experts cited by the WSJ, was not the primary motivation. Employment and domestic fuel supply security were. Now, that capacity has been compromised – and some of it has been damaged by Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure – and there is no one to pick up the slack, with U.S. refiners already operating at rates as high as they can.

So refineries were built in the Middle East, some of which are now being hit. The world is also depending on Russia for diesel, which has declared a ban on exports because of Ukrainian strikes. And a fair number of the ‘dirty diesel’ refineries in Europe, because they are too dirty to be owned by Europeans, are owned by Russia and now are sitting idle.

It’s ridiculous, but it sure explains things, doesn’t it?

It’s even worse in Europe, where years of cutting their noses off to spite their green faces have left them nearing a jet-fuel crisis as well. The Saudis were forced to cancel oil shipments to Europe that had been scheduled for October.

Europe is reeling from a diesel supply crunch, and now another squeeze is looming on the horizon, as jet fuel supply tightens ahead of the final quarter of the year.

Per Energy Aspects, the shortfall in jet fuel supply for Europe next quarter could reach 510,000 barrels daily, Reuters reported today, adding that the consultancy sees a jet fuel surplus of 18,000 barrels daily in the United States and a larger 419,000-bpd surplus in the Asia-Pacific.

The tighter supply situation in jet fuel comes as European stocks of the commodity dwindle to the lowest since 2019, Reuters also reported. Jet fuel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to 454,000 tons in the week to September 10, their lowest in seven years. Meanwhile, South Korea has emerged as the largest jet fuel supplier to Europe, with imports running at a daily rate of 129,000 barrels daily.

And the Europeans are facing a devil’s choice. They are ramping up diesel production, which is going to decrease their available gasoline stocks, and those are already tapping multi-year lows.

Perhaps one can hum along on unicorn farts, but I wouldn’t want to be forced to find out.

I am very happy in drill, baby, drill land.

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