It was an exciting opening day of baseball, with the Wild Card round seeing three of four home teams win Game 1. Statistics show that Game 1 is essential to winning the series, as Game 1 winners are 15-1 in the series since this format started. Today, losing teams look to extend the series to give themselves a chance. Winning teams look to close it out. One of the best games on the slate is between the Phillies and Braves.
The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game needing a win in order to extend their season. This isn’t unlike what happened to them in the last game of the season. With their backs against the wall, Philadelphia had to dig deep and get a win to avoid a historic collapse. They did it, and now they need to find a way to win on the road against a Braves team that kept ripping their hearts out yesterday. If the Phillies want to take anything from yesterday’s game, it should be that they were in it the entire time, and a couple of different pitches would’ve given them the win.
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If they want to have optimism for today and the series in general, it should be due to their pitching staff. Cristopher Sanchez takes the ball today, and he is one of the best starters in the game. For the year, Sanchez turned in an 18-7 record with a 2.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 231 strikeouts. If you want a bit of reason to be concerned, it is due to Sanchez’s road numbers. He threw 14 starts on the road this season and allowed 37 earned runs over 86 innings. He also had one of his worst months of the season in September. He allowed 18 earned runs in 31.2 innings this month. He did not face Atlanta on the road this season, but allowed three earned runs over 12 innings of work at home.
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The Atlanta Braves are in the driver’s seat after winning Game 1. If you didn’t watch the game, it is worth giving a brief recap. They had their best starter on the mound, Chris Sale. He pitched well, but did start the game by allowing a run in the first inning. The Braves manufactured a run in the second to tie it. The Braves grabbed the lead in the sixth inning with an RBI triple. The Phillies then took the lead in the top of the seventh. Philadelphia turned to their closer to try to close out the final few innings. It didn’t work, as Austin Riley hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth to give the Braves a win.
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Now the Braves have two shots to win the series, but they need to do it against the two best pitchers from Philadelphia. The Braves really don’t have an answer for the Philadelphia starters, but they turn to Tyler Mahle to give it a go. Mahle is 7-10 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He has been much better at home than on the road this season. In home outings he has a 2.74 ERA compared to a 5.28 ERA on the road. He has also been dialed in over the past few months, allowing 24 earned runs over his past 82.1 innings. Philadelphia has struggled against him this year, with just six earned runs over 23.2 innings spanning four starts.
The line is telling us that this game should go to the Phillies, but I’m not sure it is worth backing them. Sanchez might need to throw a complete game because the Philadelphia bullpen was taxed yesterday. This is normal rest for Sanchez, but he has already thrown more innings than he has ever thrown in his career, and he hasn’t looked great lately. The Braves have the momentum as well. I’ll take a shot on Atlanta on the moneyline.
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