FBI Data: Rifle Murder Share Fell Even as AR-15 Ownership Surged

A new Crime Prevention Research Center analysis of FBI data finds that rifles' share of firearm murders fell after the federal "assault weapons" ban expired in 2004, even as AR-15 and AK-47 ownership grew roughly tenfold.

Snapshot

The CPRC analysis, published November 4 and reported by Duncan Johnson at AmmoLand, examined FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data from before, during and after the 1994-2004 federal ban. Rifles' share of firearm murders averaged 4.9% during the ban but dropped to 3.6% afterward, a roughly 27% relative decline, according to CPRC. The findings arrive just weeks before the Supreme Court hears arguments in two consolidated AR-15 ban cases.

Key points

• The numbers: CPRC reports rifles made up 4.8% of firearm murders before the ban, 4.9% during it, and 3.6% after it expired, with the post-ban decline statistically significant by CPRC's own t-test.
• Ownership surged anyway: CPRC estimates AR-15s and AK-47s per 100 Americans rose from about 1 in 2004 to 10.2 in 2025, with no corresponding rise in rifles' share of murders.
• Court timing: The analysis lands ahead of December 2 oral arguments in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, challenging rifle bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut.
• Government's argument: Cook County's brief contends common ownership doesn't guarantee constitutional protection; AmmoLand notes Giffords Law Center and Virginia's attorney general have urged the Court to limit or revisit Bruen and Heller's protections for AR-15s.

Quick take

AmmoLand frames the data as undercutting the public-safety rationale gun-control groups use to justify rifle bans, while stressing that Duncan Johnson and the outlet argue the constitutional question doesn't hinge on crime statistics at all. The analysis itself wasn't independently reviewed here, so its methodology and definitions are worth scrutinizing directly.

Read the full story: ammoland.com