A Texas political shock Republicans can’t ignore

Until Saturday night, Texas Senate District 9 had been represented by a Republican for over 30 years. In 2022, Kelly Hancock won the seat by 20 points. Last November, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in the district by 17 points. So when Hancock stepped down to accept the appointment as controller, Republicans had little reason to think the seat would be in jeopardy.

But on Saturday, Democrat Taylor Rehmet trounced his Republican opponent by over 14 points — a 31-point swing since the 2024 election. The results have sent shock waves through the Texas Republican establishment.

For the last two decades, Republican leaders have governed the state to satisfy their base — pandering to the issues important to those voters and ignoring what most Texans wanted.

Some Republican pundits have discounted the results because it was a special election with a very low turnout. It is certainly true that the turnout in Saturday’s election was much lower than last November (15% versus 64%). But the results are consistent with polling over the last year, signaling that Texans have been turning increasingly negative on the Republican leadership of the state.

Over the last year, the University of Texas Polling Project has conducted seven polls asking voters whether they approved or disapproved of the job various state leaders were doing. Trump and all statewide Republican leaders began the year with positive approval ratings. By the end of the year, all were in negative territory. The average move downward was 24 points.

The crosstabs in the polls show that the groups who have turned most negative are independents, Latinos, and young people. Of course, there is considerable overlap between these because Latinos and young people eschew both parties at higher rates than other groups. Nonetheless, the moves within these groups in 2025 were breathtaking.

Even more startling is that Trump’s approval rating with Republicans dropped by 17 points (from 88% to 71%) — and this was before the debacle that has played out in Minnesota or his threat to invade Greenland. One political operative I spoke with, who closely followed the Tarrant County race, estimated that 15%-20% of Republicans voted for the Democrat candidate.

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I think the poll’s questions on what issues Texas voters are most concerned about are telling. The issues garnering the most response were “political corruption/leadership” (18%), inflation (16%), and the economy (14%). Another 67% said they were very concerned about the cost of health care. Two-thirds of Texans believe that Trump’s tariffs are leading to higher prices. Texans also disapprove of state leaders’ handling of abortion (-17), regulation of marijuana/THC (-20), and public education (-23).