Are Trans People More Likely to Engage in Mass Shooting? CRPC Looked at Numbers

In the aftermath of the shooting in Rhode Island, we’re back to discussing if trans people are somehow more violent than non-trans individuals, with a lot of people offering up a lot of opinions on the topic.

Honestly, I have my own thoughts on the subject, which we’ll get into later, but for now, what about the facts? What do the numbers actually tell us?

The unfortunate truth is that most of those who are interested in compiling numbers are also inclined to fudge the numbers to make a point, based on what I’ve seen over the years.

John Lott, though, tends to run counter to those folks, and his organization took a look at who did what.

The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), created by John Lott, has published research on the ratio of active shooting attacks by people who are mentally confused about their gender identity, commonly referred to as “transgender.”  In 2024, according to the CRPC research, transgender individuals were 12 times as likely to commit an active shooting attack compared to the population as a whole.

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The variables most important to determine if transgender people are over-represented in active shooting attacks are the total number of active shooting attacks, the number committed by transgender people, and the percentage of transgender people in the population as a whole. The numbers can be refined by looking at specific population subgroups if there is sufficient data. All of these numbers can be manipulated by changes in definition. When conducting statistical research, it is extremely important to use precise definitions.

The research published by the CRPC does a good job of carefully defining the numbers it uses and the definitions that are used. The CRPC study examines both active shooting and mass killing with the traditional FBI definitions. It uses estimates of the percentage of transgender people in the population from the Centers for Disease Control, a Gallup survey in 2021, and the Census.  The numbers vary from .5% to 1% in the period studied. The numbers appear to be rising. The study only looks at the period from 2018 through 2024. The study does not speculate about the causes of the increase in the percentage of people who identify as transgender.

Now, note that this assumes a particular percentage of individuals identifying as trans. The number was taken from a survey, which may or may not reflect reality accurately. If it doesn’t, then Lott’s findings will be inaccurate by a similar degree, but that would be a good-faith error in the study, as opposed to cherry-picking we often see in gun research.

In many years, we have seen an oversized representation of trans killers compared to non-trans killers. This year it’s especially bad, but we’re not even two months into the year. That leaves a lot of time for things to change.

A big question that’s likely on some people’s minds is whether or not this justifies a transgender gun ban, and I’d argue that it doesn’t.

Why? Because we don’t punish entire groups for the actions of a few, even if they’re over-represented in that few compared to most other groups. Just as we don’t deny gun rights to black Americans simply because black Americans are overrepresented in the prison population for committing violent crimes, we shouldn’t be in the business of permitting the government to disarm an entire group of people simply because they’re not us.

“But they’re mentally ill because they think they’re another sex,” some will fire back, and be that as it may–gender dysphoria has long been considered a mental illness, at least until recently–it’s not one that inherently makes one violent.

My take is that the de-medicalization of transitioning is a big chunk of the problem we’re seeing. It used to be that in order to go through the hormone therapy and surgeries to transition, one had to be evaluated to make sure there weren’t any other underlying issues. Once that went out the window, pretty much everyone who wanted them could get hormone treatment.

Well, as anyone who has spent time around teenagers knows, weirdness with hormones can do weird things to a person. My own hypothesis is that a lot of these trans killers were people who wouldn’t have gotten transitioning procedures under the old scheme, but now are losing their minds due to the hormones that shouldn’t have been introduced into their system in the first place.

That seems like a better place to start fixing things than basically agreeing with anti-gunners that blanket gun bans are a good idea. The last thing we should do is encourage these people.

Editor’s Note: The radical left will stop at nothing to enact their radical gun control agenda and strip us of our Second Amendment rights.

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