Baltimore’s Cracked the Code on Reducing Violence, and It Has Nothing to Do With Gun Control

From 2015 to 2022 Baltimore, Maryland had more than 300 murders each year, but the numbers have been steadily declining over the past couple of years. In 2024 the city had 201 homicides, and this week the city’s top cop announced that so far, homicides are down 22% compared the same time last year. 

Baltimore and the state of Maryland have long had restrictive gun control laws, and Baltimore Police Commissioner Richard Worley isn’t pointing to any of them for the success in bringing down the crime rate. Instead, he’s giving credit to a strategy we’ve discussed repeatedly here at Bearing Arms; one that involves a targeted effort aimed at the most prolific offenders rather than looking for ways to criminalize lawful gun owners. 

Brandon Scott didn’t come up with the Group Violence Reduction Strategy. The tactic has been around since the late 1990s, when it was used in Boston to great results, with juvenile homicides decreasing by more than 50%. Since then it’s been used in dozens of cities to varying degrees of success. In fact, it was previously tried in Baltimore under then-Mayor Martin O’Malley, but according to criminologist David Kennedy the effort wasn’t that successful, in part because of infighting among various stakeholders as well as O’Malley’s unwillingness to embrace the strategy. 

This time around the cooperation between local, state, and federal law enforcement alongside community groups, Baltimore’s faith community, and other stakeholders appears to be going much better. In addition to homicides in Baltimore down 22% over last year (which itself saw a substantial decline from 2023’s figures), Worley says reported rapes hae dropped by 35%, carjackings are down 15%, and assaults are down by 11%. 

Gun control activists and anti-gun politicians didn’t predict this when the Supreme Court struck down “may issue” concealed carry laws like the ones in place in Maryland. Instead, they said crime would soar as more people carried guns. The number of licensed concealed carry holders has increased from around 15,000 to more than 80,000 statewide since 2022, but instead of skyrocketing crime Baltimore is on pace for the fewest number of murders since the city started keeping records. 

That’s what happens when police focus on violent offenders, not responsible gun owners. It’s what happens when more folks are able to exercise their right to keep and bear arms. 

To be sure, Maryland still has a host of ridiculous restrictions in place; including a Handgun Qualification License that must be obtained before purchasing a pistol, a ban on so-called assault weapons and large capacity magazines, and a number of “gun-free zones” that are sensitive in name only. There’s still a lot of work to be done to make the Second Amendment more accessible to residents, but Baltimore has shown that these laws are unnecessary while Second Amendment advocates are working to prove them unconstitutional as well.