Democrats face uphill battle in government shutdown gamble with Trump

The Democrats are taking a big gamble by going along with a government shutdown, one that they will probably lose.

The most important reason is that President Trump has a giant megaphone. Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer simply can’t compete in drawing media attention.

What’s more, while some Americans may blame both sides – can’t they act like adults and work out these budget fights? – the Republicans are blaming the “Democrat Party” for triggering the shutdown.

At yesterday’s White House briefing, itself a key advantage, JD Vance and Karoline Leavitt kept repeating, like a mantra, that the Democrats support “healthcare for illegal aliens.” That is bunk. They aren’t eligible. It’s already against the law, except in emergency situations. But Trump is pounding that message home through sheer repetition.

VANCE BLAMES SCHUMER’S FEAR OF AOC PRIMARY CHALLENGE AS SHUTDOWN CAUSE

A Washington Post editorial yesterday says “Democrats just marched into a shutdown trap … Progressives embraced the same disastrous mentality that led the House Freedom Caucus to believe it could come out ahead in previous government funding standoffs: They wrongly assumed their political leverage would withstand the ensuing fallout.”

A few minutes after the briefing, Hakeem Jeffries stepped before the microphones to declare that Republicans don’t want to provide healthcare “to working-class Americans.”

The minority leader said the administration is trying to “jam their extreme right-wing agenda down the throats of the American people … The Republican healthcare crisis is immoral.”

Frankly, it just didn’t sound as forceful or have the same impact.

Whatever the immediate toll of the shutdown – military people and hundreds of thousands of civilians not getting paid, food stamps on hold – Vance and Leavitt blamed it on Democratic intransigence. (Those laid off will get back pay once the shutdown ends.)

The vice president said Schumer is moving left because he’s terrified of a primary challenge by AOC. She says her only goal is to “stop this madness.”

The president has been more candid, telling reporters: “We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them. Like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like.” Now that’s transparency.

The Dems don’t hold the moral high ground when it comes to kick-the-can votes to delay a shutdown, having frequently used the tactic when they were in charge. While Vance says they’d be happy to talk about healthcare during a seven-week delay, the other party feels they would lose whatever leverage they have, and it would be politically humiliating.

The Democrats are making a more complicated argument about healthcare, and that’s a tougher sell for the many millions who don’t follow the news closely.

KFF, which is Kaiser, says those on Obamacare would get socked if tax credits are allowed to expire at year’s end. Average premiums next year would be $888, but without the tax credits, would jump to $1,593 – a 114 percent increase.

That would really cripple the Affordable Care Act and knock millions off the rolls.

SOCIAL SECURITY, AIRPORTS, FOOD STAMPS: HOW ARE YOU AFFECTED DURING A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN?

The Dems’ other objection is to deep cuts in Medicaid, despite Trump’s promise to protect the program. But that’s why we have elections. Having lost the House, Senate and White House, the party can’t expect the GOP to make sweeping changes to its preferred budget.

It just so happens – a coincidence, I’m sure – that the administration yesterday halted $18 billion in funding for two major transportation projects in New York City, expansion of the Second Avenue subway and new train tunnels under the Hudson River.

A shot at Schumer’s hometown? Vance says this is a question of “triage,” saving money on such projects to preserve essential services.

But it’s really a case of Trump going after Democratic priorities, as he said he would, since he preserved funding for one of his pet projects, the mission of returning to the moon, which seems less than vital at the moment.

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What really got Jeffries mad after Monday’s unsuccessful White House meeting was a fake AI image posted by the president. It depicted him as having a handlebar mustache and wearing a huge sombrero, with mariachi music in the background.

Jeffries called the parody “racist” and demanded that the president “say it to my face.”

The bottom line, given the atmosphere of mutual distrust, is that this government closure could drag on for awhile. That would gradually boost the pain level, and the Democrats are already at a disadvantage.

At this point the opposition party is trying to show the public that it can fight, and that, beyond the healthcare battle, may be its main message.