‘Disappointing’ DOGE: Federal workforce shrinking by just 1% shows bureaucracy’s entrenchment, experts say

Data indicating the federal workforce shrank by just 1% over the first few months of President Donald Trump’s second term shows a “disappointing effect of DOGE” and the level of bureaucracy’s entrenchment in America, experts told Fox News Digital. 

Figures released by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) show that the United States employs 2,289,472 federal workers as of March 31, which is down from 2,313,216 on September 30, 2024.  The reduction of more than 23,000 positions “reflects the administration’s early efforts to streamline government and eliminate unnecessary bureaucracy,” OPM said in a press release.   

“That’s just through the end of March. So I suspect those numbers will be higher by the end of September this year, which is when a lot of the early retirement packages– and buyouts – go into effect,” Alex Nowrasteh, the Cato Institute’s vice president for economic and social policy studies, told Fox News Digital. 

“Regardless of what those numbers are, this is not enough people having been terminated. It is not enough shrinkage in the federal workforce. And it is a disappointing effect of DOGE that it wasn’t able to increase the size of the decrease in the federal workforce,” he added. 

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Trump signed an executive order in February instructing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to coordinate with federal agencies and execute massive cuts in federal government staffing numbers.   

That order is reflected in the new data, OPM said, showing that agencies averaged 23,000 new monthly hires from April 2024 to January 2025 but dropped by nearly 70% to just 7,385 per month once the hiring freeze was fully implemented. 

Peter Morici, an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland, told Fox News Digital that “Basically, Elon Musk poured a few teacups of ice water into the ocean to combat its rising temperature.” 

“It’s very hard to get rid of people unless you get rid of functions. See, he was able to decimate USAID because he took away all their money,” Morici said. “It’s very, very hard to cut down the Commerce Department unless you, for example, don’t want the numbers collected.” 

“It takes more than four years,” Morici also said. “Look at the problems they’re having just with Medicare reform, how all the special interests come out. Over the years, the federal bureaucracy is not just in Washington, but it’s been spread throughout the country.” 

“And as you talk about cutting it down, you’re talking about affecting local economies, the interests of congressmen, and so forth,” he added. 

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DOGE did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital. 

David Hebert, an economist with the American Institute for Economic Research, said the reduction reported by OPM “is certainly a start.” 

“The real challenge that President Trump is facing is the fact that the federal government has taken upon itself far too many responsibilities,” he added in a statement to Fox News Digital. “If the President and Congress are serious about streamlining government, they need to move beyond ‘waste, fraud, and abuse’ and look to shedding responsibilities that the federal government ought not have in the first place.” 

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OPM said “hundreds of thousands more workers” will drop from the rolls in October 2025, when more workers depart via the Deferred Resignation Program that was offered to employees in an effort to trim the workforce.   

Tens of thousands of employees who are in the process of being terminated remain on the government payroll due to court orders that are currently being challenged by the administration, according to OPM. 

“The American people deserve a government that is lean, efficient, and focused on core priorities,” Acting OPM Director Charles Ezell said in a statement. 

“This data marks the first measurable step toward President Trump’s vision of a disciplined, accountable federal workforce, and it’s only the beginning.” 

Trump’s effort to shrink the federal workforce has faced stiff resistance from Democrats and various courts, with opponents saying that the administration is cutting critical jobs. 

Fox News Digital’s Andrew Mark Miller contributed to this report.