GOP group sees opportunity for November gains in two states’ 2025 elections

FIRST ON FOX: The first election cycle of President Donald Trump’s second term poses an opportunity for the GOP to make electoral inroads in two Democrat-leaning states, a Republican campaign group said in a memo being released Tuesday.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) announced Tuesday that Republicans will take an offensive posture in the lead-up to the November elections in the Democrat-leaning states of Virginia and New Jersey. The group hopes to take the lessons learned from Democrat gains seen following Trump’s first electoral victory in 2016 to create a more winning strategy for the first election cycle of Trump’s second term.

“While the 2025 races in Virginia and New Jersey will be challenging, we have the opportunity – and strategy – to avoid a 2017 relapse,” RSLC President Edith Jorge-Tuñón wrote in a memo released Tuesday outlining the group’s strategy for the states. “We have learned from our past experiences and are ready to fight smarter. With the right resources, we can break through Democrat strongholds, make strides in key districts, and disrupt the Left’s plan to gain unchecked momentum heading into 2026.”

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New Jersey and Virginia will be seeing several important statewide elections later this year, including elections for governor and several races for various key House seats that could prove pivotal for the balance of power in these states. 

Both states will also see local races this year for major school districts, such as Virginia’s Loudoun County, as well as some races for municipal government employees, such as Jersey City mayor and Richmond City commonwealth attorney.

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The RSLC strategy says that in both Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans plan to focus on Democrats’ legislative shortcomings on issues such as taxes, crime and education through digital ad campaigns, as opposed to focusing on defending the Trump administration’s actions.

“Riding the momentum of the 2016 presidential win, Republicans in 2017 were caught off guard as Democrats successfully nationalized local races, linking GOP candidates to federal dysfunction,” the group’s strategy memo stated. “With President Trump returning to the White House, Democrats are licking their chops and not being shy about it. They are confident that his comeback will bolster their efforts to change the power dynamics, positioning 2025 as a pivotal moment for a significant political realignment. It’s up to us to prove them wrong.”

The RSLC said it also intends to continue to push robust absentee ballot and early voting initiatives in Virginia and New Jersey as part of its strategy for 2025 in these states.

The RSLC said it plans on reaching out to “low-propensity Republican voters,” noting this strategy helped Republicans in Virginia prevent Democrats from increasing their legislative majorities in 2023. 

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A nearly $1 million absentee and mail-in ballot initiative was launched by the RSLC in New Jersey last year, which the group said helped boost GOP engagement in a state that political experts have said is inching its way toward becoming a swing state. 

This effort, along with other initiatives in New Jersey, like targeted digital advertising, has helped Republicans establish “a strong foundation for competitive performance” in key battleground areas in the state, the RSLC said. The group said it is hoping to build on this in 2025, particularly in New Jersey House Districts 3, 8, 11 and 30. 

“The RSLC enters the 2025 election cycle with a clear understanding of the challenges ahead. Gaining ground in Virginia and New Jersey will be difficult, but Republicans are far better positioned than we were in 2017,” the RSLC strategy memo said in its concluding remarks.

“Republican State Leadership Committee and its affiliated PACs are making substantial investments in both states—not just to maintain our positions but to prevent Democrats from gaining the momentum they will need to pose a serious challenge in 2026. Every seat we contest and every message we communicate this year is significant. The effort to avoid a repeat of 2017-2018 has already begun—with a smarter, more prepared Republican Party ready to succeed in 2025 and beyond.”