Iowa special election on Tuesday could give Republicans supermajority

Democrats’ last sliver of leverage in Iowa’s Senate is on the line Tuesday, with Republicans poised to seize a supermajority that would let GOP leaders govern with little resistance.

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Renee Hardman, the Democratic candidate, will face off against Republican Lucas Loftin in a race for Iowa Senate District 16 to fill the seat of the late Sen. Claire Celsi, who died of undisclosed medical complications in October. 

Celsi, a Democrat, had held a seat in Iowa’s Senate since 2019.

With control of two-thirds of the chamber, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds could more easily push through her appointments to state agencies. Without it, she requires the help of at least one Democrat to confirm her nominations.

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That lone vote provides Democrats with a rare level of power in the Hawkeye State. 

Democrats, now in danger of losing their foothold in the Senate, also find themselves dwarfed in the state’s House of Representatives, where Republicans hold 66 of the chamber’s 100 seats. Democrats, meanwhile, hold just 33. 

There’s one vacancy in the chamber. 

At the federal level, Republicans hold all four of Iowa’s districts in the House of Representatives and both U.S. Senate seats. Notably, Democrats will likely try to wage a competitive Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, in 2026. 

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Democrats narrowly escaped a Republican supermajority back in another special election in August. Tuesday will mark Iowa’s sixth special election of the year.

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Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Dec. 30.