Iran’s theocracy faces uncertain transition after Khamenei’s death

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Iran entered a new chapter Saturday after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, abruptly ending more than three decades of authoritarian rule and setting in motion a leadership transition the regime has long prepared.

A senior Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel that while Khamenei’s demise is a “massive blow” to the Islamic Republic, Tehran anticipated the possibility and took steps to withstand such a scenario.

“Mere survival, at this point, would be considered a victory,” the diplomat said of the regime, according to the outlet, following U.S. and Israeli strikes across the country.

A recent report from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) outlined three broad trajectories for a post-Khamenei Iran: managed regime continuity, an overt or creeping military takeover, or systemic collapse.

CFR cautioned that even a leadership change at the top would not necessarily translate into meaningful political reform in the near term, given the regime’s deeply institutionalized power structure and its record of using force to maintain control.

The report notes that the real balance of power rests within a tight circle of clerical elites and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

It describes a likely “continuity” scenario as producing “Khamenei-ism without Khamenei,” in which a successor from within the regime preserves the ideological framework of the Islamic Republic while relying on established security institutions to preserve stability.

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“The Islamic Republic’s constitution includes a succession process. The Assembly of Experts, a clerical body, is constitutionally charged with selecting the next supreme leader,” Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital.

“In the interim, should there be a leadership vacancy, an interim leadership council is formed comprised of the president, chief justice, and a member of the Guardian Council selected by the Expediency Council,” he added. “The IRGC is a key stakeholder in this process, and will heavily influence its outcome.”

Over the past three decades, the Bayt-e Rahbari, or the Office of the Supreme Leader, expanded into what a February report by UANI described as a “sprawling parallel state” operating alongside Iran’s formal institutions.

Thousands of people gather in a central Tehran square following a major announcement broadcast on state television.

The analysis characterizes the Office as the regime’s “hidden nerve center,” extending control across the military, security establishment and major economic foundations in ways that make the system’s authority institutional rather than dependent on Khamenei’s physical presence.

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“The supreme leader today is no longer just one man; he is represented through an all-encompassing institution that consolidates power, manages succession, and guarantees continuity,” the non-partisan policy organization said. “The Islamic Republic’s most enduring strength lies in this hidden architecture of control, which will continue to shape the country’s future long after Khamenei himself departs from the scene.”