It Seems Others Interested in How Gallup Keeps Getting It Wrong

Gallup polls blew it. I’ve already talked a bit about that, of course. It’s kind of funny that they blew it because while they’re still claiming that people support gun control, they don’t seem to have an answer about why it played such a non-existent roll in the 2024 presidential election. I hit on part of why that’s the case.

But I’m not the only one asking the question and looking at why Gallup’s push doesn’t seem to reflect electoral reality.

Others are asking and in doing so, they hit on some points I didn’t.

Bias in Question-Wording

Gallup’s survey uses emotionally charged scare words, particularly with terms like “assault weapons ban.” The phrase “assault weapon” is a politically charged term that lacks a consistent legal or technical definition, making it ripe for misunderstanding. Respondents may conflate these firearms with fully automatic weapons or military-grade equipment, which are already heavily restricted.

This loaded terminology can lead to inflated support for bans based on confusion rather than genuine public sentiment. A more neutral phrasing—such as “semi-automatic rifles”—would likely yield very different results.

This is a very common problem, in part because most people don’t know exactly what an “assault weapon” actually is. That includes people who have been nominated to head the ATF, as a matter of fact. 

A different choice of phrasing might well have yielded different results, especially since Gallup sold the responses as supporting a semi-automatic ban, which most respondents never agreed to.

Failing to Account for Reactionary Support

Gallup itself admits that spikes in support for gun control tend to follow high-profile mass shootings and then decline over time. The October poll was conducted months after a high-profile shooting /assassination attempt on President Trump’s life, meaning public opinion may still have been influenced by emotional reactions rather than long-term policy preferences.

The poll’s timing also reflects the influence of media coverage. The anti-gun narrative promoted by mainstream outlets often amplifies temporary support for stricter gun laws, while pro-gun perspectives are underrepresented.

Once the media cycle moves on, support for gun control typically declines, as the poll’s historical trends clearly show.

This is pretty common, though I don’ know that it played a factor in this poll at all.

People get to get pretty emotional after a mass murder. The worse the murders, the more than react emotionally. There’s a reason we saw more support for gun control after Uvalde than after Las Vegas–while Las Vegas had a higher death toll, Uvalde involved children. People react more emotionally then, so that tends to lend themselves to wanting gun control.

Once things settle down, they come to recognize that the issue isn’t the gun but the jackwagon pulling the trigger.

Overweighting Urban & Liberal Demographics

Gallup heavily relies on cell phone interviews, which made up 80% of their sample. While cell phone-only respondents reflect changing communication trends, they also tend to skew younger, more urban, and more progressive. These demographics are more likely to support gun control than rural or older populations, who are less likely to be reached via cell phone polling.

Furthermore, the poll’s weighting to match national demographics may not adequately reflect the realities of the voting public, particularly in key battleground states where pro-gun candidates consistently outperform national polling expectations.

Now this is a biggie.

Older folks are less likely to support gun control and are more likely to still use landlines. For example, I don’t generally answer unfamiliar numbers on my cell phone unless I’m expecting a call from someone new or the unfamiliar number calls at a time I’m expecting a call. That’s about it, and I’m not exactly a young, urban progressive.

So while they’re getting a sample–and it’s a fairly small sample, really, which may screw up the results–they’re also using a method that is far more likely to give them a particular set of answers all on its own. They might be trying to weigh the data, but they’re clearly not getting it right. The results from the election make that clear.

These were only some points that I didn’t make. The author agrees that Gallup fails to not how important an issue is for the respondent, which tends to suggest stronger support than what actually exists.

Of course, some of you may be wondering why it matters. The answer is simple. People quote Gallup and similar polls to try and sell the idea that gun control is popular when all other indicators are that it’s not.

Gallup’s poor polling methodology muddies the water and makes people think these ideas are winning ideas when, in fact, they’re not.