Philly Gun Permit Demand Still High, Homicide Rate Dropping

City leaders in Philadelphia aren’t fond of guns. They don’t particularly want people carrying them, and they really want to restrict the lawful ownership of them as much as possible. They’re largely thwarted by Pennsylvania’s preemption law, though, so while they might try, they’re not going to gain much ground in that endeavor.

But Axios has an interesting report that details just how permit demand has been, and what that’s done to the homicide rate.

Philadelphians flocked to firearms in 2024 as issued gun permits continued to outpace pre-pandemic levels.

The big picture: The high interest comes as some experts report more groups with traditionally lower gun-ownership rates are embracing firearms.

State of play: Philadelphia police issued 20,591 license-to-carry permits last year, per city data.

• That’s a nearly 13% drop from 2023, marking a third consecutive year of permit declines.
• Yes, but: Before the pandemic, gun permits in Philly averaged about 8,400 annually, according to state police statistics from 2014-20.

The latest: As of mid-March, license-to-carry permits had exceeded 4,600 this year.

The intrigue: Philadelphia saw big declines in homicides and other violent crimes last year.

• So far, homicides are down 28% compared with the same time last year, per Philly police’s online dashboard.

Now, let’s compare what we’re seeing here. Gun permits have been issued at massive rates compared to before the pandemic. They might be dropping, but let’s also consider that the permits are good for five years. That means a lot of people who got theirs in 2021 are still carrying. They won’t need to renew it until next year.

But as the number of valid gun permits continues to increase, thus meaning there are more guns on the streets in the hands of law-abiding citizens, we’re not seeing a corresponding increase in violent crime. This is interesting, not because I wouldn’t expect it, but because this runs counter to the repeated claims of gun control advocates who say more guns mean more crime.

That’s simply not supported here.

While correlation isn’t causation, this cannot be definitive proof that concealed carry has led to the drop in violent crimes, particularly at this kind of rate. However, causation should lead to correlation, which means that if the anti-gunners were right, we shouldn’t see this, but the opposite.

And while this isn’t definitive proof, I do personally believe that the drop in homicides and other violent crimes is because more people are carrying firearms as part of their day-to-day routine. Bad people might mostly be looking to settle scores, but knowing that literally anyone else nearby might put a bullet or 12 in them without a care in the world regarding whatever altercation took place before has got to play a role in their thinking.

Even if it’s not, though, it shatters the typical anti-gun myth that concealed carry corresponds to some kind of increase in violent crime, that it turns cities into the Wild West and the streets will run red with blood.

That’s not what happens, and what we’re seeing in Philadelphia is evidence of that. It’s not the only evidence of it, either.

Axios seems shocked by this.

Bearing Arms isn’t.