Red America is quietly turning blue — here’s why

Elect strong conservative leaders in your state — or watch it go the way of New York City. That’s the unmistakable warning conservatives should take from New York voters nominating a Hamas sympathizer and self-proclaimed socialist for mayor.

How could this happen just one generation after 9/11? How does the city that suffered most from jihadist terrorism now embrace a foreign-born Islamist who wants to “globalize the intifada”?

When Trump calls for more farm labor from the third world — so long as the workers aren’t ‘murderers’ — he misses the deeper issue. Violent crime isn’t the only threat.

Several factors explain the city’s decline, but one stands out: immigration. Forty percent of New York City’s population now consists of foreign-born residents — not including the children of immigrants. Mass immigration on that scale, especially from Islamic and third world countries, doesn’t just change the labor market. It imports foreign values and embeds them in the culture.

Trump should think twice about demanding more foreign agricultural workers for red-state America. His arguments about labor shortages miss the larger picture. This isn’t just about harvesting crops — it’s about reshaping schools, neighborhoods, and eventually, the ballot box.

In 2022, the Center for Immigration Studies mapped 2,351 Census Bureau-defined Public Use Microdata Areas to show the percentage of schoolchildren from immigrant households. No surprise: Urban districts in places like New York and Los Angeles show overwhelming majorities of immigrant families.

But that trend now stretches deep into red states. Cities and even rural counties are seeing shockingly high proportions of students from immigrant families.

In southeast Nashville, 65% of public-school students come from immigrant families. Iraq ranks as the second-largest country of origin. In Dallas, all 20 school districts report at least one-third of students from immigrant households. In most of those districts, a majority of families are foreign-born.

This trend extends well beyond major cities. In southwest Oklahoma City, 43% of students come from immigrant families. Greenville, South Carolina, stands at 35%. Birmingham and Chattanooga each hover around 20%.

Red-state cities and midsize towns now reflect immigration levels once limited to coastal urban hubs. That leaves rural America as the last holdout — and even that is changing.

The so-called farm labor trade has transformed heartland communities. These public school districts report the following immigrant family enrollment rates:

• Texas Panhandle (outside Potter and Randall Counties): 31%
• Oklahoma Panhandle: 21%
• Southwest Kansas (Dodge City, Garden City, Liberal City): 55%
• Central Nebraska: 27%
• Canyon and Owyhee Counties, Idaho (Caldwell and Nampa): 30%
• Whitfield County, Georgia: 43%
• Woodbury and Plymouth Counties, Iowa (Sioux City): 26%
• Washington County, Arkansas: 26%
• Fargo, North Dakota: 23%

Until recently, these areas were overwhelmingly native-born. They maintained a strong continuity of American culture and civic tradition.

What happens when the next generation of these children grows up, votes, and brings in more from similar backgrounds? These red counties may not stay red for long.

Mitt Romney won Washington County, Arkansas, by 16 points in 2012. Just 12 years later, Donald Trump carried it by only six — even as he expanded his statewide margin. What changed? More than a quarter of the local student body now comes from immigrant households.

RELATED: New York City’s likely next mayor wants to ‘globalize the intifada’

Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images

Trump won rural Sampson County, North Carolina, by a 2-to-1 margin. Yet, by the 2022–23 school year, Hispanic students made up 44.2% of public school enrollment. The district now runs extensive English as a Second Language programs to meet ongoing demand. Even if Hispanic voters shift modestly right, when has such rapid demographic upheaval ever worked to conservatives’ advantage?

The pace of change is impossible to ignore. Importing foreign labor into rural counties inevitably reshapes culture — and, soon after, voting patterns.

Greene County, Iowa, illustrates the point. In 2023, Hispanic residents accounted for just 3.3% of the total population. But that number underrepresents their influence. Iowa State University researchers found Latino populations in rural Iowa tend to skew young, meaning they disproportionately fill the schools even when their overall numbers look small. That imbalance compounds over time.

When Trump calls for more farm labor from the third world — so long as the workers aren’t “murderers” — he misses the deeper issue. Violent crime isn’t the only threat. The more serious loss lies in surrendering the very communities that naturally align with traditional American culture.

As Vice President JD Vance put it during his Republican National Convention acceptance speech: “America is not just an idea. It is a group of people with a shared history and a common future. It is, in short, a nation.”

That is the nation Trump must promise to defend — not just with words but with sound policy.