Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 52%-43% in new Virginia governor poll

With just a dozen days to go until Election Day, a new poll in one of the only two states in the nation holding showdowns for governor this year indicates Democrats with a single-digit lead at the top of the ticket, but tight margins in the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Democratic gubernatorial nominee and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger leads Republican rival Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 52%-43% among likely voters in Virginia, according to a Suffolk University poll released Thursday in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

EARLE-SEARS COMES OUT SWINGING IN HEATED DEBATE AS SPANBERGER DODGES JAY JONES QUESTIONS,

But the survey indicates Republican Lt. Gov. nominee John Reid and Democratic rival Ghazala Hasmi deadlocked at 45%, and GOP Attorney General Jason Miyares topping Democratic challenger Jay Jones 46%-42%.

Virginia and New Jersey are the only states that hold gubernatorial contests in the year after a presidential election. And the elections, which traditionally grab outsized national attention, are viewed this year as early verdicts on President Donald Trump’s unprecedented and relentless second-term agenda, as well as key barometers ahead of next year’s midterm showdowns for the U.S. House and Senate.

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While Spanberger has held the lead over Earle-Sears in a slew of surveys since the start of the year, polls tightened recently after explosive revelations in Virginia’s attorney general race rocked the campaign trail.

NATION’S ONLY TWO 2025 RACES FOR GOVERNOR ROCKED WITH THREE WEEKS UNTIL ELECTION DAY

Jones has been in crisis mode since controversial three-year-old texts — where he compared then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert to mass murderers Adolf Hitler and Pol Pot. He said that if he was given two bullets, he would use both against the GOP lawmaker to shoot him in the head. The news was first reported a couple of weeks ago by the National Review.

Jones acknowledged and apologized for the texts, but has been facing calls from Republicans to drop out of the race. And the GOP is aiming to leverage the controversy up and down the ballot, forcing Spanberger on defense.

While the poll indicated that more respondents see the nation on the wrong track, more also view Virginia on the right track under Youngkin, which would typically buoy the party in power in Richmond.

However, President Donald Trump’s approval has fallen below 40%, suggesting a tug-of-war that could break for Democrats in the end. However, Trump also received the most credit from Virginians asked about the Israel-Hamas peace process – with former President Joe Biden only receiving credit from 4% of respondents.

More respondents also blamed Democrats than Republicans for the ongoing government shutdown – by 38-28%, while Trump by-name was blamed by 21% of additional respondents.

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“Spanberger is trying to carry the whole Democratic ticket over the finish line,” said David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “However, the Democratic nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general are struggling in their respective contests, and they can’t seem to replicate Spanberger’s popularity, early voting ground game, or dominance over their opponents.”

According to the new poll, which was conducted Oct. 19–21, Spanberger led Earle-Sears among women 57%-38%, while only trailing among men by a single point, 49%-48%. Among Black voters, Spanberger led Earle-Sears 87%-9%, while trailing among white voters 52%-46%.

And the survey indicated Spanberger topping Earle-Sears by 15 points among those voters who identify as independents, and by 19 points among those who have already cast a ballot.

Early voting in Virginia kicked off on September 19 and the poll suggests that nearly a quarter of all votes for governor in the November election have already been cast.

Five-hundred likely voters in Virginia were questioned in the poll. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.