The great replacement, American style

Earlier this month, the Cato Institute — perhaps the most effective think tank advocating open borders — published a study claiming that since 1994, immigration has generated a whopping $14.5 trillion surplus in tax revenues over expenditures.

Critics quickly noted that Cato’s study uses a strange standard for judging immigration policy. For example, the study admits that immigration drives up housing prices by increasing demand, yet it still treats the resulting rise in property-tax payments from homeowners — citizens and noncitizens alike — as a benefit.

Who the ‘American people’ were in 1776 or 1787, or are in 2026, is a much-disputed question, but that does not exempt us from trying to answer it.

But perhaps more fundamental is the study’s idea of what should count as an expenditure on immigrants. It treats the educational and medical expenses of immigrants’ American-born children — all of whom Cato claims are “birthright citizens” — as expenditures on citizens rather than on immigrants. This is the same kind of sleight of hand we saw during COVID, when the rise in illness experienced after the first of two shots was counted as cases among the unvaccinated rather than the half-vaccinated.

Statistical games aside, such studies raise a far deeper question: To whose well-being, security, and liberty is the government of the United States directed? That is answered for us in the preamble to our fundamental law, the Constitution of 1787:

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

When I cited the preamble recently, the libertarian economist Glen Whitman replied that it is not binding law. Perhaps, but it is something more fundamental than law — it tells us what our laws should be trying to achieve.

Who the “American people” were in 1776 or 1787, or are in 2026, is a much-disputed question, but that does not exempt us from trying to answer it.

When John Rawls — the late political philosopher and the most influential liberal theorist of my generation — tried to explain how rational people should design society’s basic institutions, he did not treat civilization as nothing more than a collection of isolated individuals. In his famous “original position,” he argued that we should imagine ourselves not only as individuals but also as representatives of “continuing persons” — family heads, or stewards of enduring family lines.

This concept of continuing persons was Rawls’ clunky but effective mid-20th-century version of Gouverneur Morris’ more eloquent “ourselves and our posterity.” It does not seem crazy or racist — Rawls would have said it was reasonable — to think that immigration policy should be assessed from the perspective of current citizens and their descendants. In fact, that was how the historical Rawls claimed we should think about immigration, much to the surprise and dismay of his students and epigones.

On social media, we find the repeated cry that the so-called great replacement — the notion that elites are exchanging native populations for more tractable revenue producers — is a demagogic lie. After all, the open-borders pundits argue, more immigration doesn’t mean anybody is forced to leave.

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But we are all forced to leave. Someday, each of us will be reunited with his or her fathers and mothers. Our descendants — the children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren we leave behind in the country we made for them — are our posterity.

Another problem is that mass immigration not only increases the demand for housing, but it also suppresses the wage expectations of the native-born, particularly native-born men who are low-income workers. By increasing housing prices and reducing lifetime wages, mass immigration erodes the economic foundation required for family life, making fewer native-born men marriageable.

This decreases the fertility of the native-born. While an increasing share of children are born to unwed mothers, unwed parenting is sufficiently difficult that few such mothers have more than one child, and very few have more than two. Governments then trumpet studies like Cato’s to justify bringing in immigrants to support the aging natives who do not have enough of their own posterity to meet the fiscal need.

To paraphrase Charles de Gaulle, the graveyards are full of irreplaceable men. But if we want our graves to be tended and our memories to be revered by our posterity, we need to work now to ensure that immigration policy serves the welfare, security, and liberty of that posterity.

Those who continue the work of George Washington and the other founders by maintaining and passing on the union they built — stronger, more united, and free — may not be their blood relatives, but they can justly claim to be their spiritual progeny.

A version of this article appeared originally at the American Mind.