The Republicans who could derail reconciliation

Reconciliation talks are beginning to boil over as Republican factions begin attacking the “big, beautiful bill” from all angles.

Up until this week, critics have been relatively quiet about reconciliation while the majority of Republicans embraced the bill, meant to codify President Donald Trump’s agenda.

To be clear, the bill does so to an extent. The tax policy is studded with pro-family provisions and includes the incredibly popular “no tax on tips” policy Trump floated during his campaign. There are Medicaid reforms intended to trim the fat and reduce fraud by enforcing work requirements. It even increases the endowment tax on elite universities like Harvard, subjecting the largest endowments to the 21% corporate rate.

But what was supposed to be the centerpiece in the Republican-led Congress has become a focal point for conflict, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is doing what he can to plug as many leaks as possible.

‘I understand that we have a thin majority, but we should deliver.’

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Some defectors who have been the most difficult to please are the SALT Caucus, a bipartisan bunch pushing to eliminate the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions. The blue-state Republicans in the caucus, like Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, have been particularly stubborn during these closed-door negotiations.

During one of their many meetings this week, the members even threw out their colleague Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of New York because she supported the proposed $30,000 cap increase that came out of the Ways and Means Committee. Notably, Malliotakis is the only SALT Caucus member on the committee and therefore the only member with direct influence over tax policy, the very thing the SALT Caucus is trying to change.

Even after holding several meetings throughout the week, Johnson said that he will likely have to work through the weekend to strike a deal with SALT Caucus Republicans.

RELATED: Big, beautiful bill advances after 18-hour markup marathon while SALT talks go south

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Predictably, Johnson is also facing an uphill battle against conservatives on Capitol Hill, most notably those on the Budget Committee. The committee is the last to hold a markup on Friday morning, which consists of piecing together all the reconciliation portions that have come out of the 11 House committees’ markups.

There are no amendments allowed in the Budget Committee. They will simply vote to advance the bill in its entirety.

The problem is that several Republicans on the committee have already committed to voting against the bill’s advancement. There are 21 Republicans and 15 Democrats on the House Budget Committee, meaning Republicans can afford to lose only two votes if they want to get the bill across with a simple majority. Yet among those 21 Republicans, four of them said they are willing to tank the bill.

Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas told Blaze News earlier in the week that he couldn’t get behind the bill because it doesn’t do enough to rein in spending and address fraud in the Medicaid system.

“It has to be amended,” Roy told Blaze News. “I’m not going to be able to support it as it’s currently drafted, and those amendments are going to need to be, you know, relatively significant.”

“I didn’t come here to perpetuate a broken system,” Roy added. “I understand that we have a thin majority, but we should deliver.”

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Republican Reps. Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and Josh Brecheen of Oklahoma echoed Roy’s concerns, saying they too intended to vote against the bill in committee.

Despite these naysayers, leadership is pushing on, with Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) saying he is confident the bill will pass committee on Friday.

“We did the hard work of setting real targets to restore fiscal sanity, and I’m confident we will have the votes in the Budget Committee tomorrow,” Arrington said in a statement. “The Republican conference is working in good faith through a few scoring and policy clarifications. With something this big and beautiful, you’ve got to get it right.”

If the bill manages to scrape by in the Budget Committee, it will be headed to the Rules Committee on Monday before eventually being put up for a vote on the floor before the Memorial Day target. Unlike the Budget Committee, the Rules Committee allows amendments, which Johnson, who has a historically narrow House majority, will likely need to make if he wants to get enough votes to pass the bill.

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