Trump-backed victory in Missouri could trigger redistricting battles in other key states

Its mission accomplished for Republicans in a second state they control in the high-stakes political battle over congressional redistricting, pitting President Donald Trump and the GOP against the Democrats.

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe last weekend signed into law a new congressional map that is likely to hand Republicans an additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives ahead of next year’s midterms elections.

Missouri, a one-time swing state that has dramatically shifted to the right over the past decade and a half, is the latest battleground in the congressional redistricting showdown after the passage of new maps in GOP-dominated Texas and a redistricting push by Democrats in heavily blue California. 

With Democrats currently needing just a three-seat pickup in next year’s midterms to win back the House majority, each seat could be critical.

REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR SIGNS INTO LAW TRUMP-BACKED CONGRESSIONAL MAP

“I was proud to officially sign the Missouri First Map into law today ahead of the 2026 midterm election,” Kehoe said in a statement. “We believe this map best represents Missourians, and I appreciate the support and efforts of state legislators, our congressional delegation, and President Trump in getting this map to my desk.”

Trump, in a social media statement following passage in the GOP-dominated state legislature last month, called the new map “FANTASTIC” and said it “will help send an additional MAGA Republican to Congress in the 2026 Midterm Elections.”

Republicans currently control six of Missouri’s eight congressional seats.

Democrats are vowing to fight the new maps with legal challenges and other opponents are gathering petition signatures to force a statewide referendum on the redistricting law.

ABBOTT CLEARS FINAL REDISTRICTING HURDLE AS TEXAS SENATE PASSES NEW TRUMP-APPROVED MAP

Kehoe announced Missouri’s special legislative session to pass the new map as Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas signed into law a redistricting bill passed by the Republican supermajority in the state legislature that aims to create up to five right-leaning congressional districts at the expense of current Democrat-controlled seats in the reliably red state.

The moves in Missouri and Texas are part of a broad effort by the GOP to pad its razor-thin House majority to keep control of the chamber in the 2026 midterms, when the party in power traditionally faces political headwinds and loses seats.

Trump and his political team are aiming to prevent what happened during his first term in the White House, when Democrats reclaimed the House majority in the 2018 midterm elections.

Democrats are fighting back against the rare, but not unheard-of mid-decade redistricting.

California state lawmakers approved a special ballot proposition this November to obtain voter approval to temporarily sidetrack the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission and return the power to draw the congressional maps to the Democrat-dominated legislature.

The effort in California, which aims to create five more Democratic-leaning congressional districts and counter the shift in Texas, is being spearheaded by two-term Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is seen as a likely 2028 Democratic presidential contender.

With the new maps in Texas and Missouri signed into law, and voters in California weighing in at the ballot box this fall, here’s a look at which states could be next in the redistricting battle.

Ohio

State lawmakers in the Buckeye State missed a deadline this past Tuesday to approve a new, bipartisan map. They’re under a court order to come up with a new map because the one used the past two election cycles didn’t receive enough bipartisan support.

Since the GOP-controlled state legislature failed to come up with a new map, the task now falls to Ohio’s Republican-dominated redistricting commission, which has until the end of the month to get the job done.

Ohio was once a top battleground state, but Republicans have dominated statewide contests over the past decade. 

Republicans currently hold ten of the state’s 15 U.S. House seats.

Ohio, due to the mandated court order for a new map, was originally the only state expected to undergo congressional redistricting this year before Trump and his political team urged other Republican-controlled states to alter their maps.

Indiana

Lawmakers in the Hoosier State, another one-time battleground where Republicans are now firmly in the majority, could meet in a special legislative session later this year to push through redistricting.

Vice President JD Vance paid a visit to the Indiana Statehouse in early August to huddle with Republican leaders about redistricting. And a couple of weeks later a group of Indiana GOP lawmakers traveled to the nation’s capital to meet with Vance and other Trump White House leaders.

Republican Gov. Mike Braun, in recent interviews, said he wanted state lawmakers to take the lead on redistricting.

“I want it to be where it wasn’t forced upon our legislature, have our leaders talk to their own caucus members,” the governor told WOWO radio.

Florida

Once the biggest battleground prize in presidential elections, Florida is now firmly red.

And Republican leaders are mulling a new map, with GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis this summer calling mid-decade redistricting “appropriate.”

A select panel in the Republican-dominated state legislature could meet next month to start discussion on congressional redistricting.

Maryland

Democrats in heavily blue Maryland are weighing a redistricting push.

A bill that would allow Maryland to undergo mid-decade redistricting if another state first passed new maps was introduced this summer by Democrats.

Democrats currently hold seven of the state’s 8 U.S. House seats.

 

Other states considering altering their maps are Democrat-dominated Illinois and red states Kansas and Nebraska.

Meanwhile, Democrats could pick up a seat in Republican-dominated Utah, where a judge recently ordered the GOP-controlled legislature to draw new maps after ruling that lawmakers four years ago ignored an independent commission approved by voters to prevent partisan gerrymandering.