Washington State’s Newest Gun Control Law Could Lead to a Spike in Sales

Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson claims that the permit-to-purchase bill he signed into law on Tuesday is just another “common-sense reform” that will save lives once it takes effect two years from now. Of course, anti-gunners like Ferguson, who was previously the state’s attorney general, have been saying that with every gun control measure that’s taken effect over the past few years; from “universal” background checks and bans on “large capacity” magazines and so-called assault weapons to a 10-day waiting period on all firearm transfers.

As Republican legislators noted last year, however, those “common sense” reforms haven’t kept the state’s violent crime rate from soaring in recent years. Law enforcement has also blasted lawmakers for their disastrous approach to public safety. In a press release issued last September the Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs documented some of the lowlights:

Comparing 2019 to 2023 data for the last five years shows that:

– In Washington State, the increase in murders is more than five times higher than the national trend (87.4% vs. 17.2%), and the murder rate has increased more than 80% since 2019.

– Violent crime rates have increased 19.6% in the last five years in WA State, while they havedecreased 4.1% nationally.

– Aggravated assault rates have increased 27.3% since 2019 in WA State, while they have increased 5.6% nationally.

– Vehicle theft rates have increased 110.2% since 2019 in WA State, while rising 44.9% nationally.

– The vehicle theft rate in WA State is more than twice the national rate (318.7 per 100,000 nationally vs. 673.7 per 100,000 in WA State).

– While the rate of robberies in WA State has increased 19.8% over the past five years, they have decreased nationally by 18.5%. 

Instead of cracking down on violent offenders, however, the Democratic majority continues to take aim at the right to keep and bear arms and those Washingtonians who are exercising their Second Amendment rights. 

Under House Bill 1163, which goes into effect in May 2027, any state resident wishing to purchase a gun must first apply for a permit, then pay a fee, and show documentation of completing a safety training program – including live-fire shooting – within five years.

Per the bill, potential gun buyers will have to obtain a five-year permit through the Washington State Patrol. At the point of purchase, buyers will undergo another background check and wait 10 days before taking possession of the firearm. 

The bill passed both chambers of the Legislature on a strict party-line vote, with no Republicans supporting the bill.

“I’ve met with families over the years that have gone through the most terrible loss possible, due to gun violence,” Ferguson said at Tuesday’s bill-signing ceremony. “We must put common-sense reforms in place that save lives.”

Here’s some real common sense: if violent crime is increasing, yet the prison population in Washington is down 30% since 2017, lawmakers need to fix the broken criminal justice system instead of criminalizing the mere purchase of a firearm without a government-issued permission slip. 

I don’t see that happening anytime soon, however. Nor do I anticipate any immediate lawsuits over the new permit-to-purchase scheme. Since the permitting process doesn’t go into effect until 2027, litigation at this point would be premature. 

Still, we may very well see at least one immediate consequence to the permit-to-purchase law; a surge in gun sales ahead of the law’s effective date. When Oregon’s Measure 114 (which contained a permit-to-purchase measure) was narrowly approved by less than 51% of voters in 2022, it resulted in a sharp increase of business at gun shops across the state. 

ince the passage of Measure 114, which will require a permit to purchase a firearm and ban the sale of high-capacity magazines, the daily average number of background check requests filed by gun dealers has quadrupled.

Before the election, the Oregon State Police were processing an average of 849 requests per day. After the election, that average shot up to 4,092 requests per day through Sunday, Nov. 13. The daily average dropped to 3,104 requests per day for Nov. 9 to Nov. 15, a spokesperson for Oregon State Police wrote in an email to OPB.

Those numbers stayed elevated for months, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar phenomenon in Washington now that Ferguson has enacted another permit-to-purchase scheme. It would be a common sense reaction to an egregious attack on a fundamental civil right, and it would be wonderfully ironic if the state’s latest gun control measure led to more Washingtonians exercising their right to keep and bear arms.