37 Minutes: FAFO, Colombia Style

If you blinked, you missed Colombia’s attempt to take on Donald Trump. Instead, the socialist president of the South American nation ended up humiliating himself … in record time. 

Yesterday, Gustavo Petro announced the he refused entry to US flights carrying deported Colombians rounded up in the first days of Trump’s aggressive enforcement operations. It didn’t take long for Trump to respond, slapping all Colombian imports with a 25% tariff and suspending all visa processing. Trump also promised to start escalating his response even further today if Petro didn’t open his airport to deportation flights:

President Trump said his administration would immediately impose 25% tariffs on Colombian goods coming into the U.S., which he described as retaliation for Colombia rejecting two U.S. flights carrying migrants back home.

The move came hours after Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s government said Sunday that he had blocked U.S. flights of deported Colombians, challenging Trump’s policy of removing undocumented and criminal migrants from the U.S. Trump responded in a post on his Truth Social platform that the tariffs would be raised to 50% in a week.

Trump also said that in return for Petro ordering the flights not to land, he was issuing a travel ban for Colombian government officials and visa sanctions on people connected to the country’s government.

“These measures are just the beginning,” Trump wrote. “We will not allow the Colombian Government to violate its legal obligations with regard to the acceptance and return of the Criminals they forced into the United States!”

Part of the fury came from the fact that the Trump administration had cleared the flights earlier with Petro’s regime. Newly installed Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that Petro had reneged on that agreement, with the clear implication that Petro had taken the opportunity for grandstanding:

Colombian President Petro had authorized flights and provided all needed authorizations and then canceled his authorization when the planes were in the air. As demonstrated by today’s actions, we are unwavering in our commitment to end illegal immigration and bolster America’s border security.

CNN confirmed that documentation showed that the US had arranged the flights with Petro’s government prior to his mid-flight reversal. Still, Petro remained defiant … for about 37 minutes. Salena Zito provided the timing between Trump’s announcement and Petro’s retreat:

In retreat, Petro offered to use his presidential plane to return the illegal immigrants to Colombia in order to maintain their “dignity”:

Colombian President Gustavo Petro offered his presidential plane to repatriate migrants coming back from the U.S. on Sunday in response to stern warnings made by President Donald Trump.

In a statement translated from Spanish, the Colombian government said that the plane will help facilitate a “dignified return.”

“The Government of Colombia, under the direction of President Gustavo Petro, has arranged the presidential plane to facilitate the dignified return of the compatriots who were going to arrive in the country today in the morning, coming from deportation flights,” the translated statement read.

Good enough for Trump? Not hardly. The White House let it be known that Trump still plans retaliation, and the sanctions would start immediately:

A senior White House official says Trump’s team is currently “preparing documents for signature with all sanctions and tariffs indicated,” and that they’ll be “signed ASAP.” https://t.co/82S7sTjMwE

— Shelby Talcott (@ShelbyTalcott) January 27, 2025

It’s not even clear that Petro’s plane can land in the US. Trump’s retaliatory sanctions includes a travel ban to the US for all Colombian officials, which might mean that Petro’s plane will be denied access to US airspace. That would especially be the case if the purpose of the flight is non-diplomatic, although Trump’s order at least nominally applies to diplomatic missions as well. 

Trump might have normally been inclined to take the W, especially given Petro’s humiliation yesterday, but it might not be that easy. These won’t be the last deportation flights from the US to Colombia, and Trump will not be inclined to wait for Petro’s plane each time. Petro also announced 50% tariffs on American imports, but Petro can’t afford a trade war with the US, especially over a refusal to allow Colombian nationals to be returned over their illegal status. He’s already as popular with Colombians as Joe Biden is with Americans, and a trade war will wreck the Colombian economy while doing next to nothing to ours:

Mr. Petro’s approval ratings stand at around 34 percent, weighed down by corruption scandals and a resurgence in fighting among armed groups.

To justify his measures targeting Colombia, Mr. Trump also claimed that the military deportation flights refused by Mr. Petro included a “large number of Illegal Criminals” and that the United States was seeking the “return of the Criminals they forced into the United States.”

The tariffs alone could deal a significant blow to Colombia’s economy. The United States is Colombia’s largest trading partner, with top Colombian exports to the American market including crude oil, coffee and cut flowers.

Trump might have been more inclined in his first term to take an easy W, but not now. And now Petro knows it, too, at least according to the White House late last night:

Breaking: The White House says Colombia has agreed to “all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay.”

Some of the… pic.twitter.com/VIXm8mIsS8

— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) January 27, 2025

Humiliation complete, if true. 

Trump knows he needs to impress upon South American leaders that they will have to accept deportees on America’s terms, and Petro makes a very good test case. Who wants to do a FAFO cycle with Trump next?