Kamala Harris’ polling numbers in battleground states have steadily declined since she began giving more interviews to press in recent weeks, according to multiple national pollsters.
After weeks of facing bipartisan criticism for failing to sit for interviews, Harris broke the flood gates and began a media blitz campaign that kicked off with a Sept. 19 town hall moderated by Oprah.
The Oprah hit started a run that included a one-on-one with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle, a “60 Minutes” interview and an appearance on the popular sex-focused podcast “Call Her Daddy.”
Harris struggled to define herself politically, meandering through word salads and refusing to separate herself from President Biden despite campaign promises of “a New Way Forward.”
Pre-Oprah, Harris had a slim lead over Donald Trump in battleground states. She led him by just two tenths of a percentage point in the battlegrounds on Sept. 18, according to the RCP average.
One day later, her lead was down to a single tenth of a percentage point, and by Sept. 23, Trump had taken the high ground by two tenths of a percentage point. Today he stands three tenths of a point ahead in the battlegrounds, according to RCP. (RELATED: ‘She’s In Danger’: Mark Halperin Says ‘Things Aren’t Moving Right’ For Harris In Key Battleground States)
That lead is still well within the margin of error. However, the trend highlights larger movement in some key battlegrounds.
In Michigan, a key battleground state where one Democratic lawmaker warned Kamala is “underwater,” Trump leads Harris 50 percent to 47 percent, according to the most recent Quinnipiac poll. Trump’s lead is a reversal from the very same Quinnipiac poll from September, where Harris led him 50 percent to 45 percent.
Wisconsin, another key battleground, replicated the flip. Harris led Trump 48 percent to 47 percent in September, but now Trump is up 48 percent to 46 percent in the October Quinnipiac poll.
Pennsylvania, arguably the most important state in the race, followed the trend. Though Harris still leads Trump 49-46, according to Quinnipiac, her lead has shrunk from a September 51 percent to 45 percent advantage.
Trump is trending positively in virtually all major battleground states compared to last week, outside of Georgia where Harris has picked up a tenth of a percentage point this week and Arizona where there has been no movement, according to renowned pollster Nate Silver.
Today’s update with those Quinnipiac polls added.
Good numbers for Trump in WI and MI, offset a bit by a good poll for Harris in PA.
As tight as ever but at the same time, the model isn’t yet seeing a major change.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/XHnmCQZZDo
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 9, 2024
Harris does still lead Trump nationally, 49.3 percent to 46.1 percent, according to Silver. However, it’s unlikely she could win the electoral college without winning North Carolina or Pennsylvania, provided she can carry the other swing states, according to NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki.
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