Americans filing taxes this year are expected to receive significantly larger refunds, with the White House projecting an average increase of roughly $1,000 per filer as a result of President Trump’s signature second-term tax overhaul, commonly referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as reported by The New York Post.
The 2026 tax filing season officially opened Tuesday, and the U.S. Department of the Treasury projects a total of $429 billion in refunds will be issued to taxpayers.
That figure represents a sharp increase from the $329 billion paid out last year. With the higher total, the average refund is expected to exceed $4,000.
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“Millions of Americans are poised to receive significantly larger tax refunds thanks to President Donald J. Trump’s landmark Working Families Tax Cuts Act — which every Democrat in Congress opposed,” the White House said in a statement.
“The historic legislation is delivering the biggest tax refund season ever.”
Last year, more than three-fifths of U.S. households received refunds averaging $3,167, according to data cited by The Wall Street Journal.
While not all taxpayers receive refunds — roughly 60 percent do — those who qualify this year are seeing noticeably larger payments.
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The increase stems from changes included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the sweeping Republican-backed tax package signed into law last year by President Trump.
Republicans made the tax cuts retroactive to the 2025 tax year while leaving IRS withholding tables unchanged. As a result, many workers paid higher withholding rates throughout the year, with the benefit now arriving in a lump sum during tax season.
According to the Tax Foundation, roughly one-quarter of the individual tax relief comes from raising the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000.
The largest single contributor is the new overtime deduction, accounting for about $38.7 billion, or 30 percent, of the law’s $129 billion in individual tax cuts for 2025.
Additional provisions contributing to higher refunds include an expanded standard deduction, a new senior bonus deduction, a higher child tax credit, and new deductions for tips and auto loan interest.
The surge in refunds is arriving as the Internal Revenue Service operates with a smaller workforce than in previous years. The agency began last year with more than 100,000 employees and is now estimated to be about 25 percent smaller following retirements and layoffs.
While many reductions occurred in enforcement roles, staffing pressures remain in call centers and paper correspondence, which are heavily used by older filers.
The IRS says it expects to process approximately 164 million returns this year, roughly in line with last year’s volume, and maintains that systems are prepared for the increase.
David A. Perez, CEO of Tax Maverick AI, said the size and timing of the refund surge are unusual.
“This is not how tax relief is usually delivered,” Perez told The Post. “Typically, when the government cuts taxes, withholding tables are updated so people see a little more money in every paycheck. That didn’t happen in 2025.”
Perez said that because the law was retroactive, taxpayers effectively paid more throughout the year and are now receiving the benefit all at once.
“I haven’t seen a manufactured windfall quite like this since the stimulus checks,” he said. “But this is different, because it’s baked directly into the tax return itself.”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the administration views the refund surge as part of a broader economic strategy.
“President Trump delivered the largest tax cut in history for middle- and working-class Americans, lowering taxes in every county in every state across the nation,” Desai said.
“This tax relief will allow American families to keep more of their hard-earned money and unleash economic growth and prosperity for years to come.”
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