Atlas Intel Proved Itself Again in WI Election–Unfortunately

Brad Schimel lost to Susan Crawford, which sucks. 

And you can’t blame MAGA for not showing up to vote–Trump and Elon did an amazing job of mobilizing their voters, boosting conservative turnout by about 25% over the last Supreme Court election, which already had a high turnout compared to a more normal off-year election. The losing conservative in 2023 got 818,000 votes in that year. Schimel received 1,050,000 this year. 

That’s a very nice turnout boost for the conservative in the race, so you can’t claim that there was a lack of interest, effort, or that Trump and Musk should have done more to mobilize their base. 

Democrats, too, mobilized their base, and I’m not sure you could argue that they did a better job of it than Republicans, as tempting as that argument is to make. If this were just a base election, instead of one more like a general election where less motivated voters turn out, the vote totals wouldn’t be so off-the-charts high for an off-year election. Supreme Court elections have tended to be sleepy affairs, and even with all the ridiculous amounts of spending (Scott Walker, the former Republican governor of Wisconsin, pointed out that Schimel had more money spent against him by over $10 million than was spent in Walker’s gubernatorial campaign), getting people to vote on April Fool’s Day is an impressive achievement. 

That means that swing voters–at least swing voters made nervous by the Trump revolution–were motivated to vote and went to the polls to vote for Susan Crawford. I wish that this weren’t so, but there it is. MAGA and some swing voters went Schimel to defend two House seats from redistricting challenges, but anti-MAGA forces and more swing voters came out to oppose Trump. 

Most polls showed a tight race leaning toward Crawford, but once again Atlas Intel–the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election, came through again in 2025. They didn’t QUITE hit the nail on the head–doing so would be a matter of luck more than skill when using polling methods–but they came darn close. 

Schimel’s disadvantage appears to be anchored in a net favorability gap: Crawford has a positive net image of 6pp vs. -11.4pp for Schimel. pic.twitter.com/RRBPSrETzK

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) April 1, 2025

Their poll, with a margin of error of 4%, showed a 7-point race. The final margin was 10. They came much closer than their competitors, although another new pollster SoCal Strategies also did well. That pollster had more undecided voters, missing Crawford’s ultimate support by a larger margin. 

#New On Point Politics/SoCal Strategies Wisconsin State Supreme Court Poll
Susan Crawford: 50%
Brad Schimel: 42%
500 LV
3/25-3/26https://t.co/7LWVAUVToF

— SoCal Strategies (@SocalStrategies) March 27, 2025

Scott Rasmussen’s RMG Research also did well, but their poll was too long ago to know how accurate would be in an election more than a month later. I like Scott, but it’s hard to credit a poll more than a month out from election day with a big win. 

The lessons from this election, to the extent we can extrapolate, seem to come down to a few basic ones. First, massive spending can drive interest enough to boost turnout, especially when the stakes seem high. Second, MAGA turnout really IS motivated when Trump pushes people to show up–this election was not lost due to Republican indifference-. And third, there is a not insignificant number of swing voters who are nervous about Trump’s revolution and want some balance to rein him and MAGA in. Fourth, and unsurprising, is that negative messagine works. Schimel was pounded on air–I saw anti-Schimel commercials during the March Madness games. 

I don’t read the election as a backlash against Trump, but more as a warning sign that Democrat messaging is working to some extent. There is a substantial number of people who are nervous about Trump doing too much too fast. People look around and don’t like all the storm and strife. They see all the pushback and perhaps think that where there is smoke, there’s fire. 

It’s not a movement against Trump with swing voters, at least not yet. But all the noise and anti-Trump propaganda is taking the shine off the Trump agenda with voters who were skeptical before and whose confirmation bias has kicked in. And Democrats, who were depressed before, are angry enough now to march to the polls to take on the Republicans. 

A lot of establishment Republicans will take the lesson that slower is better, and in that they are 100% wrong. The opposite is true. The reality is that Trump’s reforms are necessary to save the country from bankruptcy, and none of the reforms are possible without momentum that is fleeting. People dislike radical change, even when it is necessary. 

So best to rip the band-aid off or rip the loose tooth out than extend the inevitable pain. 

Unfortunately, establishment-types prefer lesser and longer pain and irritation than quick jolts of pain and rapid recoveries. They are p**ssies.