Axios: Dems Still Struggling With Basic Trans Rights Questions

Axios has a story up with an illustration of a donkey walking on a tightrope. That’s really a pretty good summary of the contents of this particular piece, which is about possible contenders for the 2028 presidential race and where they stand on the issue of trans rights.

It turns out that, despite knowing this issue can have an impact with voters and despite having several years to work out answers to the most basic questions about trans rights, many Dems still aren’t prepared to answer.

Case in point, Gov. Gavin Newsom struggled with this during his most recent podcast with guest Ben Shapiro. During a ten minute-long segment of the podcast, Newsom was repeatedly on the back foot trying to avoid basic questions like “Can boys become girls?” 

Newsom’s answer: “Yeah, I just, uh, well I think—for the grace of God. Yeah.”

I think he’s trying to say ‘there but for the grace of God go I’ but it doesn’t quite come out that way. It’s certainly not smooth, which is unusual for Newsom. He is nothing if not smooth most of the time.

More significantly, while this answer shows empathy it also portrays trans identity as a kind of difficult and unwanted path some people find themselves on, which seems like something that might upset some activists.

Axios took some of those basic questions and simply asked a group of potential candidates for president what they thought. Most simply refused to answer.

Axios quizzed nearly 20 Democrats viewed as possible 2028 contenders. Most didn’t want to talk about trans rights…

We asked: Should transgender girls be able to participate in girls’ sports? Do you believe transgender youths under age 18 should be able to be placed on puberty blockers and hormones? And what is your response to the question: “Can a man become a woman?”

Former Vice President Harris, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, California Rep. Ro Khanna and Newsom were among those declining to comment or not responding.

That’s eight possible candidates, including the two likely leaders, who didn’t answer. Gov. Josh Shapiro, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were the only three who did respond and their answers were all over the map. 

Rahm Emanuel was the most centrist, saying a man can’t become a woman and boys should not play on girls sports teams. Pete Buttigieg would only say that sports issues should be left to sports leagues to decide. He wouldn’t answer the question about men becoming women. And Gov. Shapiro split the difference with his answer:

A spokesperson for Gov. Shapiro pointed us to his previous remarks to The Atlantic, in which he said local scholastic sports officials, not politicians, should make decisions about transgender athletes.

But the governor said his personal view is different, and that trans youths don’t “deserve an unfair advantage on the playing field.” His spokesperson also noted Shapiro’s recent legal action against the Trump administration over its efforts to stop gender-transition care for children.

Bottom line: Democrats haven’t really figured this out yet. Meanwhile, the Human Rights Campaign has put out a messaging guide for the midterms which encourages candidates to go on offense. That includes defending putting males on girls’ sports teams.

On the topic of transgender children playing sports, the HRC/GSG survey found that voters have concerns about fairness and safety. It also found that engaging directly with those values can reassure and persuade voters.

Take the Ossoff campaign’s response to the March Madness ad: “American parents don’t need federal bureaucrats confirming our children’s genitalia. Athletic associations and local school districts can ensure fair, safe competition in childhood athletics.” 

Ossoff addressed voters’ concerns about fairness and safety head on—while correcting the record about the attack itself.

That is not a smart approach and I think HRC knows it. They also know the Supreme Court is likely to side with states that have banned boys on girls’ teams this summer, though the guide doesn’t mention that at all. 

The basic argument this guide presents is that outspoken support for trans issues is an electoral winner. They point to Mamdani and Spanberger as examples. But I think in deep blue NYC almost any left-wing view can win. And anyway, Mamdani won on the affordability message, not his stance on trans issues.

As for Virginia, it’s increasingly a blue state and we saw that with the election of AG Jay Jones despite his off-hand discussion about murdering a Republican opponent and his hope that that individual’s children would die to teach him a lesson. If Virginia Democrats are willing to vote for that, then I don’t think it’s a surprise that Spanberger’s stance on trans issues didn’t matter.

I don’t think anyone knows for certain what the big issues will be in 2028 but at the moment it looks like cost of living issues will be part of it. Put another way, the economy is almost always the biggest issue for the most voters and that’s likely to be true again. That doesn’t mean that Democrats can’t be hurt in purple or red states by their inability to answer these basic questions about trans issues.

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