Sixty days, eh? I wonder what else happens in 60 days or so.
For the moment, the war in Lebanon will stop, but not end. Israel has agreed to enter into a 60-day “cessation” brokered by the US and France that will also see Hezbollah stop attacking Israel. That would leave Hamas twisting in the wind, and Hezbollah north of the Litani, until the next American administration officially takes the reins. Assuming this holds for that long, of course:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene the high-level security cabinet in Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening to approve a 60-day ceasefire with the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon after more than a year of war, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Monday.
At the same time, the official stressed that Israel was accepting a cessation of hostilities, not an end to the war on Hezbollah.
“We don’t know how long it will last,” the official said of the ceasefire. “It could be a month, it could be a year.”
What does the agreement entail? It looks as though Israel got all of the security assurances they demanded, as well as the right to enforce the new commitment to adhere to UN Security Council Resolution 1701:
The deal that would end the fighting on the northern front calls for an initial two-month ceasefire during which Israeli forces would withdraw from Lebanon, and Hezbollah would end its armed presence south of the Litani River, which is about 18 miles from the border with Israel.
As Israeli forces withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army will deploy thousands of soldiers into these vacated areas, alongside the UN observer force that is already in place. …
The TV report said that Lebanon has committed to overseeing all arms purchases and arms production in the country to ensure that nothing reaches Hezbollah.
The agreement doesn’t explicitly include Israel’s right to enforce terms in the sub-Litani region. However, a “side letter” from the US states that expectation explicitly, without Lebanon having to agree to it:
Under the near-finished deal, Channel 12 reported, a US side letter will state clearly that Israel has the right to act whenever it sees an “immediate threat” from Lebanon.
The report added that the US has indicated in recent days that if Israel sees a need to act against threats that can be tackled on Syrian territory, rather than on Lebanese territory, that would be preferable.
Israel has said it will act against any Hezbollah presence in southern Lebanon as necessary, either directly or by notifying the Lebanese Army via the US.
Benjamin Netanyahu will have some trouble selling this to his coalition partners. They saw an opportunity to utterly destroy Hezbollah once and for all, and wanted to continue until victory. That was not going to come easily, though, and a “cessation” technically doesn’t end the war entirely. Plus, this effectively severs Hezbollah from the war in Gaza while allowing Israelis to return to their homes in the north, solving a couple of hairy political issues for Netanyahu.
What about Hamas? Their only real hope left was that Hezbollah’s war would force Israel into concessions to get the hostages back, alive or dead. Now that Hezbollah has been neutered and the IDF controls Hamas’ resupply in the Philadelpi Corridor, Hamas is all but doomed. They can still leverage the hostages as Get Out of Gaza Free cards and escape to Iran, but otherwise the IDF will continue to pound Hamas until either they kill the last platoons of terrorists or the Gazans start lynching Hamas operatives themselves.
The most interesting aspect of that calculus is Tehran’s decision to allow the cessation. It makes clear that the mullahs are calling the shots, but also makes equally clear that they are out of moves. They have tried rescuing Hamas via Hezbollah, and watched as the Israelis have all but destroyed both. The mullahs tried to back Israel down via direct attacks, only to get a clear demonstration of Israeli power. And now the mullahs are about to see the US switch from appeasement to “maximum pressure” again, which means the money will start drying up again, and now without the deterrent value of Hezbollah any longer.
They may be playing for time and hope to restart the war via Hezbolalah. But right now, it looks like Tehran is throwing in the towel in this war, and letting Hamas fend for itself. That should be a lesson to the other proxy terror armies Iran controls … at least those still in existence.
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