Can Republicans Win Virginia In The Wake Of The Jay Jones Crisis?

Scandals surrounding Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones are fueling questions over whether Republicans can seize momentum ahead of Virginia’s November election and eke out a win in an increasingly blue state.

In 2022, Democrat Virginia Attorney General candidate Jay Jones sent text messages to Republican Virginia Delegate Carrie Coyner, saying he would shoot former Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert “twice in the head” and urinate on his grave. (RELATED: Democrat AG Candidate Reportedly Said He’d Put Two Bullets In Republican State Rep’s Head, ‘Piss On’ His Grave)

Jones later released a statement acknowledging he made the comments and blaming their release on his opponent, incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, peddling “smears through Trump-controlled media organizations.”

Justin Discigil, spokesperson for Republican Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, told the Daily Caller he expects the polls to tighten across the top three races on the ticket as Election Day nears, describing the past week as “the most crystallizing moment” of the campaign so far.

Democrat Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger declines to clarify is she is still endorsing Democrat Virginia Attorney General candidate Jay Jones and that they’re running their own races.

A non-answer from Spanberger.@DailyCaller https://t.co/mLmes7zLqd

— Ashley Brasfield (@BrasfieldAshley) October 9, 2025

“I think Virginians are starting to see the contrast that has been on display throughout this campaign, but especially comes in a clear view now in the closing stretch, which is the most basic thing that you can imagine,” Discigil told the Caller. “You have one ticket — Abigail Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi — who are standing with a guy [Jones] who called for the murder of children and cops and you have another ticket — that’s Winsome Earle-Sears, Jason Miyares and John Reid — who want to continue the common sense leadership that has made Virginia so successful over the past 4 years. Those are the stakes.”

Jimmy Keady, founder of JLK Political Strategies, also pointed to a trend in early voting that bodes well for Republicans. Republican-leaning districts are seeing good turnout, suggesting a broader shift in GOP voter engagement in Virginia’s off-year elections and Republicans’ embrace of alternative voting methods.

“”Republicans are much more behind the idea than they were even 2 cycles ago,” Keady said. (RELATED: More Than 350,000 Virginians Voted Before They Learned Jay Jones Is A Psychopath)

Since Jones’ scandal broke, multiple polls have shown the attorney general race tightening. A recent survey from the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA), conducted by Cygnal between Oct. 6–7, found Jones now trailing Miyares, whose lead has grown to +5 points since September.

A second survey from Hart Research, conducted Oct. 4–6 among 600 Virginia voters via cell phone, also indicates a highly competitive race with Jones holding a slim one-point lead over Miyares.

Discigil outlined how “the binary choice” between the two tickets has become increasingly clear for Virginia voters, saying the contrast now defines the closing days of the campaign.

“The governor is going to continue to make the case that everybody needs to get out and vote because we cannot count on their courage or their morality or their shame to do the right thing and call on Jay Jones to step aside,” he added. 

Keady explained that the scandal has heightened scrutiny of Democratic rhetoric and messaging, including from Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger, placing increased pressure on the party as the campaign heads into its final weeks.

“Two weeks before [the Jones texts were released], you had two Republican legislators — Kim Taylor, who is in the most competitive seat in the state, and Geary Higgins, who is also in the state House — receive death threats and very graphic details of those threats. So you combine that with Abigail Spanberger’s comment, where she comes out and says, ‘Let the rage fuel you’ — the Democrats have a real problem, because now it’s a narrative,” Keady said.

Democrat Jay Jones, a former VA state delegate, told GOP House Delegate Carrie Coyner that he would give former Republican VA House Speaker Todd Gilbert “two bullets to the head” and urinate on his grave, @NRO
reported on Friday, citing text messages from 2022 it obtained. https://t.co/k4y1V9TW3R pic.twitter.com/kA2GgQZK6U

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 4, 2025

Arlington GOP Chair Matthew Hurt noted he has observed a shift in polls in Republicans’ favor and on the ground from moderate Democrats, stating, “Polls show that the race, particularly for Attorney General, is shifting dramatically. I’ve even seen signs in Arlington where people have taped out the Jones on their slate signs and I think it really gives reasonable Democrats something to think about — is this the kind of political climate they want to encourage?”

The Virginia gubernatorial debate on Thursday between Republican Lieutenant Governor Earle-Sears and Spanberger drew sharp attention to the fallout surrounding Jones. Spanberger was pressed by the debate moderator on whether she would continue to endorse Jones for attorney general but avoided giving a direct answer.

Spanberger called Jones’s text messages “abhorrent” and reiterated her condemnation of them, yet declined to clarify whether she still supports his candidacy.

“Abigail’s performance in the debate was really disappointing,” Hurt said of Spanberger’s evasiveness. “To ignore a direct question from Winsome on this issue — it seems like the easy thing would have been to just address it directly.”

Discigil pointed out that even after the debate, yard signs and campaign materials still display the names of Spanberger, Hashmi, and Jones together — including a t-shirt and bumper sticker on Spanberger’s website featuring all three candidates names side-by-side. (RELATED: Spanberger’s Campaign Store Makes Clear Exactly Where She Stands On Jay Jones Debacle)

Hurtt added, “It’s clear that internally, this is wreaking havoc on the campaign, and it will continue to plague them through Election Day. Abigail said on the debate stage, ‘It’s up to the voters to decide now,’ and I think many voters are starting to think twice about the attorney general’s race.”

Democrat Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger declines to clarify is she is still endorsing Democrat Virginia Attorney General candidate Jay Jones and that they’re running their own races.

A non-answer from Spanberger.@DailyCaller https://t.co/mLmes7zLqd

— Ashley Brasfield (@BrasfieldAshley) October 9, 2025

George Mason University students who reviewed Spanberger’s and Sears’s debate performances in a focus group, described Spanberger as “stiff,” “failed to make an impression,” and said she “played both sides.”

Jones’s scandals, meanwhile, continue to pile up.

Coyner alleged that during a separate 2020 conversation with Jones, the former state delegate suggested that the deaths of a few police officers might be worth it to prevent police brutality.

Since then, multiple law enforcement organizations have publicly denounced Jones. The Virginia Fraternal Order of Police was the first, issuing a statement on Oct. 6 calling for him to withdraw from the race. Meanwhile, the Virginia Police Benevolent Association — which had previously endorsed Spanberger — has urged Jones to decline to take office even if he wins, according to a CNN report.

Another separate report found that Jones skated out of jail time for a 2022 reckless driving charge by performing 1,000 hours of community service in 2023 to advance his own political career, crediting close to half of those hours to his own political action committee, Meet Our Moment (MOM). The move appears to violate Virginia community service regulations, since MOM is a political organization and not classified as a nonprofit.

“This now goes to Abigail Spanberger’s character,” Discigil reiterated, “and if you don’t have the courage and the conviction to put basic decency over your own ticket and your own party, then you don’t deserve to be the governor of Virginia and you shouldn’t get anywhere near a leadership role in the Commonwealth.”