CNN Poll: Mar-a-Lago’s a Honeymoon Hotel

So … who’s up for another poll? I know, I know — the election has been over for more than a month now. But something tells me that readers might not mind a deep dive into another poll result in this case. 

Earlier today, Time Magazine announced that they had selected Donald Trump as their Person of the Year. A new poll from CNN shows that a significant majority of Americans have made him their man of the moment, anyway. In every issue set, voters are expressing high confidence in Trump — as CNN noted yesterday on air:

A CNN poll says Americans overwhelmingly support Trump and his transition moves.

Let me repeat that… a CNN poll.

The tide has turned. pic.twitter.com/MTizvmHmHg

— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) December 11, 2024

Most Americans expect President-elect Donald Trump to do a good job upon his return to the White House next month (54%) and a majority approves of how he’s handling the presidential transition so far (55%), according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

Trump won the presidency last month amid broad disapproval of President Joe Biden’s handling of the job and deeply negative feelings about the state of the country and the economy. Almost 7 in 10 Americans in the new poll think Trump will be able to bring change to the country (68%), though only about half of Americans (48%) say they think it will be change for the better.

We’ll get to the specific issue sets in a moment, but this result is worth noting. The actual split on the direction of this change is 48/20, which means only one in five Americans think Trump will change things for the worse while a near-majority believes matters will improve. Diving into the crosstabs, more Democrats expect no change (48%) than negative change (39%), which gives one a sense of why Democrats may seem more resigned to another season of MAGA than after the 2016 election. It also demonstrates just how ineffective the Protection Racket Media hysteria turned out to be, even among the most sympathetic audience. 

Given Trump’s limited popularity in the political sphere over the past decade, these positive numbers are especially interesting. 

CNN senses a shift in the mood in terms of right/wrong direction overall, too:

The country’s mood appears to have lifted somewhat following Trump’s win, at least in part due to the type of shifting partisan sentiments often seen in the wake of elections where the presidency changes partisan hands. Most overall still say that things in the country are going badly (61%), but the share who say things are going “very badly” stands at just 15%, the lowest in CNN polling since May 2018. The 38% who say things in the country are going well is the highest since December 2021.

This appears to be an outlier in post-election polling, at least thus far. The RCP aggregation on right/wrong direction hasn’t changed significantly since the election. In fact, it hasn’t changed much at all for the past two years. CNN’s 38% for right direction (or its equivalent) is 12 points higher than the current RCP average, although the 61% wrong-direction result is almost identical. If this is a real shift, it suggests more enthusiasm for Trump than just simply a dissatisfaction with the Biden status quo. 

Now, let’s dig into the confidence numbers. Before I list the net results, bear in mind that CNN conducted this poll after Trump had announced his choices for all of the Cabinet officials as well as most of the top-tier advisory positions in the new administration. All of these choices have had a great deal of debate and commentary, and most of the choices have gotten significant criticism in the media and among Democrats. 

With that in mind …

As CNN notes, these numbers are generally lower than for other presidents transitioning into office. However, there are two key differences. First off, Trump has already been president, and these numbers are significantly better than his approval ratings during any point in his first term. Second, none of Trump’s predecessors had both his political opposition and the entire media industry calling them a threat to democracy, a fascist, and/or a national-security risk. 

Given the larger political climate around Trump and this election, these results look like a strong endorsement for Trump, perhaps even stronger than the election results. It points to a a honeymoon phase at the very least, and arguably a validation of claims to a mandate as Trump launches his new administration. It also highlights and caps off a remarkable political comeback, one without parallel in modern American history.