CNN’s Top Data Guru [WATCH]

CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten said Monday that Republicans are holding sizable leads over Democrats on several major issues as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

Enten appeared on “CNN News Central” with host Kate Bolduan to review the findings of a Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted September 11–15.

The survey showed Republicans ahead by 7 points on the economy, 13 points on immigration, and 22 points on crime.

“Let’s compare it back to 2022. I think this kind of gives away the game right here. The GOP is more trusted than the Dems on the economy. It was 12 points in 2022. Slight, slight decline in that lead but still seven points,” Enten told Bolduan.

He emphasized the shift on immigration in particular.

“How about immigration? It was Republicans by three back in 2022. Look at this. The Republican lead has actually gone up by 10 points. What are you doing, Democrats? My goodness gracious.”

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Enten also noted Republicans’ increased advantage on public safety.

“And on crime, the Republicans were up by 13 and now they’re up by 22,” he said.

“The lead again expanding by nearly double digits. So whatever Democrats are doing, it ain’t working, Kate. It ain’t working. Republicans have the lead on all three issues.”

Bolduan asked Enten what was driving the polling results.

He responded that the preferences of independent voters are proving decisive.

“It’s all about the center of the electorate, right? You win with independents, you win overall,” Enten explained.

“And what do we see right here among independents? Republicans still have a point lead on the economy. They got a 10-point lead on immigration. They got a 21-point lead on crime.”

He concluded that Democrats cannot rely on unfavorable views of President Donald Trump to secure victories.

“The bottom line is when you look at these numbers, Democrats should call their offices because at this particular point, even if the public doesn’t like what Donald Trump is doing, they ain’t necessarily liking what Democrats are doing,” Enten said.

“And it ain’t just a referendum on one party. You actually have to go out and beat that party at this particular point. Democrats are not able to beat Republicans.”

The polling comes as the Trump administration points to recent achievements in policy areas that align with voter concerns.

The administration has reported four consecutive months without paroling a single illegal migrant into the country, a key issue as immigration continues to weigh heavily on the electorate.

On crime, federal initiatives in Washington, D.C., have coincided with a measurable decline in violent crime.

The policy shift has drawn national attention as Republicans increase their advantage on public safety in surveys.

Economic challenges remain at the forefront.

The Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, citing slower job growth and inflation that remains above the 2 percent target.

The move reflects concerns about economic conditions that are likely to play a major role in shaping voter sentiment heading into 2026.

Democrats face additional challenges as Joe Biden’s health decline and unsuccessful reelection bid continue to weigh on the party’s image.

The Washington Post reported on September 15 that Kamala Harris is preparing to release her book, “107 Days,” on September 23, a publication expected to revisit her role during the 2024 campaign and its aftermath.

With Republicans holding double-digit leads on crime and immigration and maintaining an edge on the economy, the data suggest Democrats will need to alter their approach if they intend to close the gap before the midterm elections.